1,316 results found
Newsletter
Unfortunately, the S&P 500 Index failed that initial test of the New Year by providing a negative return over those first five trading days. As shown in the chart below, the implications of the failure are potentially lower returns for the entire year.
Daily Market Commentary
The Fed came to the banking sector’s rescue in March 2023 with the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). This latest bank rescue program allows banks to replace lost deposits with a Fed loan. Instead of having to sell underwater assets and take a loss, participating banks can replace deposits with a collateralized loan from the […]
Daily Market Commentary
Axios recently put out an article with the graph below. As shown, the wealthy, defined as the top ten percent of the population as measured in wealth, own over 90% of stocks. The percentage has been steadily increasing. Axios notes that 58% of American households own stocks, but “in the aggregate, the amount of stock […]
Daily Market Commentary
There is a gap between the logic of the stock and bond markets. Most stock market analyst expectations are bullish, while Fed Funds futures warn of a recession. The following Business Insider interview with Jeremy Seigel highlights the dichotomy of opinions. Per the article: “The S&P 500 could surge by 10% to a record high […]
Daily Market Commentary
Since 2022, credit card debt has grown 10% annually to a record high of $1.08 trillion. That is double the growth rate prevailing before the pandemic. As banks tighten lending standards and an increasing number of credit card holders max out their cards, some consumers are turning to buy now, pay later loans. Buy now, […]
Daily Market Commentary
“U.S. (corporate) high-yield bonds have sold off at the fastest pace since March, when traders were worried about a banking market collapse. Spreads have widened by nearly half a percentage point since Dec. 28, the fastest pace since March 16“- Lisa Abramowicz- Bloomberg. The yield spread, or differential, between junk-rated corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries […]
Newsletter
Unfortunately, the beginning of 2024 started with a sell-off that wiped out all of the gains from the last five days of December. In other words, "Santa Failed To Visit Broad And Wall."
Daily Market Commentary
Since January 2022, nominal GDP has grown by $2.5 trillion or 5.77% annually. Such a growth rate is much better than the 4.30% annualized growth rate in the three years leading up to the pandemic. In fact, the last time the three-year annualized growth rate for the economy was better than that was after the […]
Daily Market Commentary
Quite often, year-end trading is not a function of recent economic trends, earnings projections, or other traditional economic/fundamental/geopolitical factors. Instead, window dressing, mutual fund rebalancing, tax loss selling, and other seasonal factors often take charge as December marches on. Accordingly, trading at the start of a new year is also heavily affected by the hangover […]