1,313 results found
Invest
Bullish investors continue to “Fight the Fed,” hoping that a change to monetary policy will reignite the 12-year-long bull market. But, for over a decade, the “Don’t Fight The Fed” mantra was the “call to arms” for bullish investors. “With zero interest rate policies and the most aggressive monetary campaign in history, investors elevated the financial markets […]
Financial Planning
The Retirement Transition Plan: Day One is a blueprint for moving forward in your new retirement adventure. First, keeping a foothold on the habits of a working past is a vital psychological comfort factor for new retirees. Those who passionately redefine the worth of their human capital and find ways to share years of wisdom […]
The graphs below point to a potential problem for corporate bond investors. The graph on the left highlights that as banks tighten lending standards, corporate defaults rates tend to rise about nine months later. Bank lending standards are tightening rapidly. The graph provides credence to a topic we have spent a lot of time, the […]
Invest
Last week, we discussed why the more bullish technical formations were at odds with the many recession forecasts. Not surprisingly, that article generated substantial pushback from readers, pointing out various bearish fundamental measures. As I discussed in our latest “Bull Bear Report,” the technical backdrop has improved markedly since the October lows. “I previously discussed […]
At 2 pm ET, the FOMC releases its Fed Funds rate decision, and Powell will hold a press conference afterward. To help guide you through what might be a volatile afternoon trading session, we present ING’s FOMC cheat sheet, followed by our thoughts. ING presents four scenarios for how the Fed characterizes inflation, growth, interest […]
Invest
On October 12, 1987, a week before Black Monday, the Wall Street Journal warned of the potential for significant market turmoil. Per the article: The use of portfolio insurance “could snowball into a stunning rout for stocks.” Today, we are increasingly alarmed that another trading tool similar to portfolio insurance could set markets up for […]
While only a month into the new year, 2023 has been marked by a sector rotation that has mainly been opposite of last year’s rotation trends. Thus far, consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare stocks are underperforming the S&P 500 by about 8%. In 2022, those three sectors outperformed as investor rotations focused on conservative, dividend, […]
As we consider how the Fed might adjust the Fed Funds rate on Wednesday, it’s also worth contemplating various Fed Funds forecasts for this year and next. The graph below shows there is a decent gap in Fed Fund Forecasts between what the Fed projects (green), what the market implies (black), and historical observations of […]
Invest
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy. “David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, is betting that inflation will continue to ease in 2023, helping the US economy to narrowly escape a recession. Ed Yardeni, the longtime stock strategist and founder of his […]