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A shift to stocks that offer real value and dividends is one of our key investment themes to start the year. We say “real value” versus plain old “value” as the term value can be misused, especially by ETFs and mutual funds. In our recent article, Passive Value Investors Are Not Value Investors; we compare […]
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Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy? Such was an interesting premise from Alastair Crooke via the Strategic Culture Foundation. To wit: “The Fed however, may be attempting to implement a contrarian, controlled demolition of the U.S. bubble-economy through interest rate increases. The rate rises will not slay the inflation ‘dragon’ […]
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The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks. I touched on this topic in this past weekend’s “Bull Bear Report:” Not surprisingly, the “bullish” short-term outlook garnered a substantial amount of pushback. However, there is more to this outlook than just “rosie optimism.” Let’s review what I wrote, and then we will […]
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You read that right, the Fed wants lower stock prices. Fed members will not say it as bluntly as we do in our title. But they have a long-held belief that stock prices directly impact the economy and, therefore, inflation. Thus, in the Fed’s efforts to quell inflation, it makes sense that they are likely […]
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The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.” For those unfamiliar with the term “pig in a python,” it refers to when a python consumes its prey. It does so by swallowing it whole, in this case, a pig. The […]
Silvergate Capital (SI) fell 40% on Thursday and is down by nearly 80% over the last six months. Silvergate is a crypto-friendly bank. Driving its shares significantly lower was an announcement the bank’s deposits tumbled by over $8 billion to only $3.8 billion, in what it calls a “crisis of confidence.” Further, Silvergate is laying […]
Many passive investors, such as those in retirement plans, use the start of a new year to reconsider their passive investment and reallocate accordingly. Often one of the decisions is how to split their stock allocations between large-cap and small-cap stocks. For those choosing between large-cap and small-cap stocks, we present a few graphs below […]
Financial Planning
As a small part of the recent omnibus bill, the SECURE Act 2.0 is now a reality. Investors need to know about H.R. 2954 and additional provisions to enhance retirement readiness. The SECURE Act 2.0 is the combination of three separate bills. First, the bipartisan measure is a strong incentive for diligent savers and […]
Invest
The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing. Unlike 2008, where “subprime mortgages” froze counter-party trading in the credit markets as Lehman Brothers failed, in 2022, it might just be the $27 Trillion Treasury market. When historians review 2022, many will remember it as a year when nothing worked. Such is far different than what people […]