Core CPI Lowest In 5 Years: Pre-Conflict Inflation Snapshot
The February CPI report was largely as expected. The month-over-month headline figure rose by 0.3%, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by only 0.2%, dropping the annual rate to 2.5%, the lowest since […]
True Value: Looking Through The Value Rotation Illusion
In our recent article, The Value Rotation Illusion, we explained that in the recent rotation from growth to “value”, passive investors, in actuality, are selling value stocks to buy expensive stocks. Confused? In this follow-up, we take our three-tier earnings […]
Will Oil Prices Handcuff The Fed?
After Friday’s weak employment report, there was a rebirth of the once-dead argument for a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. Over the last six months, the economy has shed 6,000 jobs in aggregate, including three months in which […]
The Oil Curve: Scary Headlines vs. Market Expectations
Rather than relying on Wall Street forecasts, scary headlines, and fear-mongering social media posts, the oil futures curve provides the collective judgment of future oil prices from the most informed and financially committed market participants — traders, producers, refiners, and […]
Technical Deterioration: Risk Management Is Key
The S&P 500 closed at 6,740 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-December, as technical deterioration, collapsing payrolls, and $100 oil converged on the charts. Every major moving average has broken. Here’s what comes next. The S&P 500 closed at […]
The Dollar Not Oil Is The Real Story
The Iran conflict has dominated the headlines, with the financial media primarily focusing on rising oil prices. While higher oil prices can certainly impact the economy, the dollar’s surge, which we hear little of, is an equally consequential market and […]
Oppenheimer: The Risk Calculus Has Changed
It was a brutal week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 finished at its lowest close since mid-December, logging a 2.0% loss, its largest weekly decline in nearly 5 months, and now sits 3.42% off its all-time high from January 27. The headline catalyst was unmistakably geopolitical: U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the prior weekend sent shockwaves through global markets on Monday morning.
USD Stable Coins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Will Oil Prices Unleash A Wave Of Inflation?
Bloomberg writes: “Iran War Oil ShockThreatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation.” To be fair, the article is not as pessimistic as the title suggests. However, the fear that significantly higher, sustained oil prices will unleash a wave of inflation […]