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Thanksgiving Dinner Prices Will Be Lower This Year
According to a recent article by the American Farm Bureau (AFB), Thanksgiving dinner will be cheaper this year than last year. That said, prices for the turkey and traditional Thanksgiving dinner side dishes are still up over 20% from pre-pandemic levels. The turkey accounts for 45% of the price of the dinner at an average […]
Nov 20, 2023
Burrys Big Short Becomes The Big Hurt
Michael Burry, who made a fortune shorting the subprime market in 2008, and was made popular in Michael Lewis’s book and movie The Big Short, is at it again. The quarterly SEC 13-F holdings report for Bury’s $1.7 billion hedge fund shows that he is short approximately $1.6 billion of the S&P 500 (SPY) and […]
Nov 17, 2023
Goldmans Goldilocks Economic Forecast And Meh Stock Outlook
Goldman Sachs released its 2024 forecast for the S&P 500 and the economy. “We forecast the S&P 500 index will end 2024 at 4700, representing a 12-month price gain of 5% and a total return of 6% including dividends. Our baseline assumption during the next year is that the US economy continues to expand at […]
Nov 16, 2023
CPI Is Weaker Than Expected
All four broad CPI inflation measures were below expectations for the first time in a long while. Headline CPI for October was 0.00%, with year-over-year inflation at 3.2%. Core CPI was 0.2%, with year over year at 4.0%. All four were .10% below what was expected. The Tweet of the Day shares a chart showing […]
Nov 15, 2023
Moodys Warns Uncle Sam: What To Make Of It?
Moody’s, the last of the three major credit rating agencies to have an AAA rating on the United States government, put Uncle Sam on credit watch negative. The AAA rating is still intact. But, Moody’s warns investors and the Treasury Department that a rating downgrade to AA is probable unless serious budgetary steps are taken […]
Nov 14, 2023
Trucking Is In Trouble
Our most recent article, CFNAI, The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number, shares an important economic metric that many investors tend to ignore. Further, unlike the more popular economic data points, CFNAI is forward-looking. Speaking of economic statistics that are not well covered is the trucking industry. Trucking services account for nearly 6% of GDP; […]
Nov 13, 2023
Used Car Prices Continue Downward
In 2021, used car prices often made headlines as one of the goods responsible for the spike in inflation. Two years ago, new car inventories were depleted at most dealers. With stimulus checks in hand and consumers needing a car, most people had no choice but to buy a used car. As a result, used […]
Nov 10, 2023
Is Oil Trying To Warn Us Of Something?
On the eve of the Hamas raid on Israel, crude oil was trading at $83 a barrel. It declined by $10 in the month leading to the attack. The narrative at the time was that global economic growth was weakening. Remember that the pre-pandemic (2015-2019) average was in the low $50s, so the price at […]
Nov 9, 2023
The Dollar Consolidates Supporting Stocks And Bonds
From mid-July through September, the U.S. dollar rose steadily. Over the period, the dollar’s value versus a basket of global currencies rose by 7%. Supporting the rally was a very hawkish Fed willing to keep raising rates. Equally important, other central banks were starting to back away from their inflation-fighting, hawkish policies. As we show […]
Nov 8, 2023
The Whales Turn Bullish On Bonds
Over the last week, some of the largest and most well-followed investors, also known as whales, turned bullish on bonds. The largest whale is famed hedge fund investor, billionaire, and philanthropist Stanley Druckenmiller. A week ago, Druckenmiller, speaking at the Robin Hood Foundation conference, said he was taking “massive leveraged positions” in two-year Treasury notes. […]
Nov 7, 2023
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