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Amazon And OpenAI: Yet Another Massive Investment In AI
Yesterday morning, OpenAI announced a massive $38 billion strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS). This deal highlights OpenAI’s diversification strategy amid explosive growth and capacity demands for training advanced models like ChatGPT. Before the deal, OpenAI relied 100% on Microsoft for its cloud infrastructure. In addition to diversifying its cloud servers, the deal may […]
Nov 4, 2025
Hindenburg Strikes: Omen Or False Alarm?
Last Wednesday, for the first time since November 2021, a Hindenburg Omen hit. This gauge is triggered when an upward trend is met with a growing number of stocks hitting both new 52-week highs and lows. Such indicates bad breadth, weakening momentum, and indecision. If all five conditions listed below are met, the indicator gives […]
Nov 3, 2025
Dow Theory: A Concerning Divergence Or Artifact?
Dow Theory is a market tool developed by Charles Dow in the very early 1900s. Dow also created the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The basic gist of Dow theory is that market trends are confirmed when gains or record highs are established in the broader market indexes, and then confirmed by similar trends and/or record […]
Oct 31, 2025
Liquidity Concerns Put An End To QT
Two weeks ago, Jerome Powell stated, “We may be approaching the end of our balance sheet contraction in the coming months.” In simple terms, as we wrote HERE, he is prepping the market for a quicker end to QT than was previously expected. While Powell was cryptic about why, the answer is obvious: liquidity concerns. […]
Oct 30, 2025
Rebasing The Dollar: Another Look At The Debasing Narrative
The phrase “debasing the currency” is all the rage in the media. Moreover, the debasement narrative is used to support the significant surge in gold and other precious metal prices. We have written a few articles on the subject of debasement, for example: Dollar Debasement and Debasement: What It Is and Isn’t. To help further […]
Oct 29, 2025
Gold Or Bitcoin: Which Is The ‘Right’ Dollar Hedge?
Gold and bitcoin are touted as the “anti-dollar”, or in some people’s minds, possible replacements for the US dollar. Thus, one would expect the dollar-debasement trade to benefit gold and bitcoin similarly. The reality throughout this year has not been what many would expect. For example, gold is up over 50% this year, while bitcoin […]
Oct 28, 2025
Negative Earnings: Another Speculative Favorite
The chart below, courtesy of Apollo’s Torsten Slok, shows that small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed small-cap companies with positive earnings by about 30% since early April. Per Torsten: “Something remarkable is going on in the equity market. Stock prices of companies with negative earnings have in recent months outperformed stock prices of companies […]
Oct 27, 2025
Inflation In Focus: What Market Data Tells Us
As we approach today’s delayed CPI report, it’s helpful to look beyond government statistics to focus on a more current and robust picture of inflation. Implied Inflation: This is derived from comparing the yields of nominal Treasury securities to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The graph below (bottom left) shows that implied inflation, also known […]
Oct 24, 2025
Beyond Meat Surges: Another Meme Ponzi?
In August 2025, Beyond Meat (BYND), a plant-based meat producer, took to social media to call reports of its bankruptcy “unequivocally false“. Despite the assurances, the company was floundering, and bankruptcy was a possibility. The company has significant liabilities and has lost money every year since its IPO. Adding to their woes, sales peaked in […]
Oct 23, 2025
Leveraged ETFs: Yet Another Sign Of Rampant Speculation
Not only is the market chasing the most speculative of assets, but it is employing record amounts of leverage to do so. Traditionally, investors use margin loans to gain leverage. More recently, however, leveraged ETFs allow investors to get leverage in one package. To wit, the graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are […]
Oct 22, 2025
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