PRO COMMENTARY

Unlike yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI report, CPI was right on the screws. As expected, CPI and CPI core rose 0.2% for the month. On a year-over-year basis, they run 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively. The data pretty much locked the Fed into […]

The Wall Street Journal shared an interesting investment strategy that Research Affiliates (RA) championed in its article, Wall Street’s Trash Contains Buried Treasure. Going by the index name NIXT, the strategy is designed to focus on a market inefficiency resulting […]

The graph below from Bianco Research shows a stunning change in sentiment among stock market newsletter writers. The top graph shows that on July 23rd, newsletter writers were extremely bullish. In fact, such a high level of bullish optimism has […]

Starting with a special video on Monday morning and our Daily Market Commentaries throughout the week, we continually updated readers on the excessive volatility in the markets. We wanted to stress that the volatility was primarily a function of the […]

According to the latest JOLTs report from the BLS, the number of job hires has fallen back to levels from 2017. Despite the rate of hires falling below the pre-pandemic trend, the labor market remains relatively strong. Why is this […]

If you want more evidence that the recent spate of intense volatility was related to the yen carry trade, look no further than last night’s market-calming comments from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi. In fact, in contrast to […]

The two graphs below tell us the market was petrified on Monday and willing to pay exorbitant prices for hedging protection. Unlike prior downdrafts, fear wasn’t just expressed in sentiment and words but also by remarkable heading action. As we […]

CLICK HERE for a short video on the state of the markets and yen carry trade. Weak employment data, the simmering Middle East, election jitters, and many other factors are taking the blame for rattling the markets. Those are important […]

This past weekend’s Newsletter discussed how yield curve un-inversions have an excellent track record of predicting recessions. Another historically reliable indicator of recessions is weakness in the corporate credit markets. In mid-July, we highlighted a troubling divergence between the best […]

As the election nears, investors will become more anxious about how the market may react to each candidate and their campaign promises. Accordingly, we suspect that shifting polls will breed volatility. Moreover, with President Biden dropping out of the race, […]

While it’s far from guaranteed, a Fed rate cut in September is looking increasingly likely. Wednesday’s FOMC statement changed to reflect a growing concern for the labor markets and less worry about inflation. The opening paragraph below says job gains […]

A SimpleVisor subscriber asked us a poignant question; we think the answer is worth sharing. Simply put, we were asked if we had any hedges in the portfolio and how we might hedge in the future. We currently do not […]

Yesterday, McDonalds issued a health warning in their earnings announcement. The warning is not about the physical health of its consumers but the customers’ financial health. McDonalds global sales were down 1%, and U.S. sales fell by 0.7% in the […]

Copper is often called Doctor Copper as its price serves as an economic barometer. Before Friday, Doctor Copper was down for nine consecutive days. In the first five months of the year, copper prices rose by 38% as inflation stagnated, […]

Can we blame the yen for the recent market decline and severe rotation from large to small caps? Before discussing the yen and its potential role, it’s important to disclaim that this is just one possible theory to explain the […]

In a stunning reversal of opinion, ex. New York Fed Governor Bill Dudley now calls on the Fed to immediately cut rates. In a Bloomberg article titled I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs To Cut Rates Now, he states: […]

Making sense of home sales and prices data is challenging as there is little activity in the real estate markets. High mortgage rates have made it difficult for buyers to buy homes. Accordingly, more would-be sellers are unable or unwilling […]

To show the dramatic shift in market breadth, we compare the SimpleVisor Absolute/Relative sector and factor analysis from yesterday to one month ago. The top graphs show that technology (XLK) was the only sector with a positive absolute and relative […]

Over the five trading days ending July 16, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (IWM) had its largest five-day outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY) since the two ETFs started trading in 2000. In just five days, IWM beat SPY by […]

On Wednesday, the Nasdaq fell by nearly 3%, the most significant decline in over two years. However, the Dow, representing more value stocks, was up over half a percent and set a record high. If the recent rotations out of […]

On Tuesday, we published Fed Rate Cuts – A Signal To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds? The article presents a historical context for what investors can expect when the Fed cuts rates. Unlike the bullish sentiment prevailing around rate cuts, […]

Goldman Sachs has been vocal over the last week or two, making a good case for the Fed to cut rates as soon as the July 31st FOMC meeting. Goldman Sachs strategist Jan Hitzius was quoted as follows: While September […]

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (UM) unexpectedly fell sharply a month ago after steadily improving. The report aligned with recent consumer surveys, retail sales data, and revenues from retail-oriented companies. Last Friday, the latest UM survey further confirmed […]

Coal miners used to bring canaries into the mines to protect themselves from harmful gases. The canary will keel over if the gas levels increase, giving the miners time to exit before meeting the same fate. In the same vein, […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% last month, following 0.0% the prior month and expectations for a 0.1% increase. Core prices rose 0.1%, a tenth below last month’s reading and the consensus forecast. Year-over-year inflation is down to 3.0%. […]

The Fed’s balance sheet peaked at $9 billion in April 2022. Today, after two years of Quantitative Tightening (QT), it has fallen to $7.2 trillion. When the Fed embarked on QT, its goal was to “normalize” its balance sheet. At […]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress yesterday and updated them with the Fed’s latest views on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy. The Fed has kept rates at current levels in part because the labor market was tight. Chair […]

A reader asked us how concerned we are about the market’s extension from crucial moving averages. The short answer is we are. But that doesn’t mean we are moving our equity holdings to cash. We continue to hold our equity […]

A year ago, the Fed Funds futures market thought the Fed would have cut rates two to three times before the July 31, 2024 FOMC meeting. Two weeks ago, the odds of a rate cut at the July 31 meeting […]

As we shared on Monday, The Fed Funds Rate Is Too High. The biggest reason is the Fed fears another round of inflation. Therefore, they try to ensure it doesn’t happen via tight money policy. Second, federal deficits have been […]