Part 1, Relative Rotation- Unlocking the Hidden Potential, reviews relative rotation strategies on pairs of securities and how understanding and assessing the relationship can help investors better manage their portfolios during bull and bear markets. Part 2 shares valuable tools that SimpleVisor subscribers can access to improve the odds of success using a relative rotation […]
Bullish sentiment has surged as the “Fear Of Missing Out,” or FOMO, kicked in in recent weeks. It is somewhat interesting to write this blog, given that we discussed the exact opposite roughly one year ago. “Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish.” – May 10, 2022 As I noted then, one of […]
Since October 2022, the stock market has traded consistently higher as earnings improved. With the first quarter earnings season behind us and the second quarter approaching, will earnings improve further? In 2021 and 2022, we wrote several articles discussing why analysts’ estimates were overly optimistic. As we head further into 2023, are analysts again becoming […]
Investors seeking to optimize their portfolio returns through bull and bear markets have various options. For instance, they can shift asset allocations to and from stocks, cash, or other asset classes based on perceived risk and valuations. Hedging is another popular alternative. At times, options trades, short positions, and inversely correlated assets like bonds can […]
In several recent blog posts and weekly Bull Bear Reports, we discussed our concern over the narrow breadth of the rally in 2023. To wit: “The A.I. chase is making for a very narrow market. As Bob Farrell once quipped: “Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of […]
Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a “soft landing” scenario. Such is where the economy slows substantially but avoids a deeper contraction. However, the problem with that is that it works against the Fed’s mission of bringing down […]
Before you read our thoughts on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), pull out your wallet and count the cash in it. Then, add any cash under a mattress or in a bank vault to that amount. That total, be it $12 or a couple of thousand dollars, is the only cash you have. The bank […]
Lately, we discussed macro-related market issues such as the” A.I., chase,” but a technical review can help manage shorter-term risks. Currently, the debate is about the market rally from the October lows. Is it a resumption of the 2009 bull market trend or an extended bear market rally? Unfortunately, I don’t have the answer. The […]
I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bonds to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had the biggest drawdown since 1786. However, there is, as they say, “more to the story than meets the eye.” A previous survey from BNY Mellon shows […]