Category: Invest

Financial advisors get a bad rap. Some deserve it; most don't. The problem for the financial advisory community stems from the "career risk" they face.

The Fed and economists are encouraged because CPI is down to 3.3% from a high of nearly 9% in 2022. Despite the Fed’s “significant progress” in lowering inflation, most citizens are outraged and confused by economists’ relatively rosy inflation observations. Most citizens believe inflation is still rampant. The Fed and economists are correct in that […]

Goldman Sachs recently upped its price target to S&P 6300 for the end of this year, along with Evercore ISI upping its year-end target to 6000. Such is not surprising given the strong run in the markets this year. Just two weeks ago, I posted the following chart saying: “We should soon start getting a […]

Over the last decade, there has been an ongoing fundamental debate about markets and valuations. The bulls have long rationalized that low rates and increased liquidity justify overpaying for the underlying fundamentals. For the last decade, that view appears correct as zero interest rates combined with massive monetary and fiscal support increased market returns by […]

The latest consumer survey data from the New York Federal Reserve had interesting data. “The New York Fed’s latest consumer survey found that expectations that stocks will be higher in the next 12 months rose from 39% to 41% since last month’s reading. At the same time, inflation expectations dropped slightly. Consumer sentiment numbers have […]

Recently, James Grant, editor of the Interest Rate Observer, was asked about his outlook for interest rates. He sees interest rates moving in a cyclical pattern, potentially rising for another multi-decade period. Grant bases his view on historical observations rather than a mystical belief in cycles. He states that finance has shown a cyclical nature, […]

Let’s play a hole of golf to appreciate how two distinct aspects of golf provide valuable lessons for investors. You tee off with a driver on a 450-yard par four hole. Your drive is perfect. Not only does the ball land in the middle of the fairway, but you only have 200 yards remaining to […]

More than a few individuals were active in the markets in 1999-2000, but many participants today were not. I remember looking at charts and writing about the craziness in markets as the fears of “Y2K” and the boom of “internet” filled media headlines. It was quite the dichotomy. On one hand, it was feared that […]

It is always interesting when commodity prices rise. The market produces various narratives to suggest why prices will keep growing indefinitely. Such applies to all commodities, from oil to orange juice or cocoa beans. For example, Michael Hartnett of BofA recently noted: The 40-year period from 1980 to 2020 was the era of disinflation: thanks […]