We noted last Friday that over the previous few years, a handful of “Mega-Capitalization” (mega-market capitalization) stocks have dominated market returns and driven the bull market. In that article, we questioned whether the dominance of just a handful of stocks can continue to drive the bull market. Furthermore, the breadth of the bull market rally […]
Over the last few years, a handful of “Mega-Capitalization” (mega-market capitalization) stocks have dominated market returns. The question is whether that dominance will continue and if the same companies remain the leaders. It is an interesting question. The number of publicly traded companies continues to decline, as shown in the following chart from Apollo. This […]
On December 5, 1996, Chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan offered that stock prices may be too high, thus risking a correction that could result in an economic fallout. He wondered out loud if the market had reached a state of “irrational exuberance.” Over the past few months, we have seen the same term, irrational […]
With both economic and inflation data continuing to weaken, expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. Notably, following the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, which was weaker than expected, the odds of Fed rate cuts by September rose sharply. According to the CME, the odds of a 0.25% cut to the Fed rate are […]
Financial advisors get a bad rap. Some deserve it; most don't. The problem for the financial advisory community stems from the "career risk" they face.
As quoted below from an executive summary of a joint report by the Department of Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the current deficit policy is deemed unsustainable. However, they fail to mention how long the Fed, via fiscal dominance, can sustain the unsustainable. “The debt-to-GDP ratio was approximately 97 percent at […]
Lately, I have been getting many questions about investing in private equity. Such is common during raging bull markets, as individuals seek higher rates of return than the market generates. Also, during these periods, Wall Street tends to bring new companies to market to fill the demand of the investing public. Private equity is always […]
Recently, a few media outlets have warned of the imminent demise of the petrodollar agreement, commonly called the petrodollar. With such narratives comes investor anxiety. Consider the following article titles on the topic. Before jumping to conclusions, let’s discuss what the petrodollar is and isn’t. With that knowledge, we can address concerns about the death […]
Wall Street analysts continue significantly lowering the earnings bar as we enter the Q2 reporting period. Even as analysts lower that earnings bar, stocks have rallied sharply over the last few months. As we have discussed previously, it will be unsurprising that we will see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street estimates. Of course, the […]