The market has had a sharp rally over the last couple of weeks, which has investors feeling all "bullish" again hoping the crash in March was just an anomaly. However, there are some questions that "bullish investors" need to answer before assuming the markets are "all clear" of what ails them.
The Fed is hopeful they can inflate another asset bubble to restore consumer confidence and stabilize the functioning of the credit markets. The problem is that since the Fed never unwound their previous policies, current policies are having a much more muted effect.
With a global recession underway, there are too many uncontrollable risks currently to maintain high levels of equity exposures. With the long-term bull trend now broken, cash is king.
With a global recession underway, there are too many uncontrollable risks currently to maintain high levels of equity exposures. With the long-term bull trend now broken, cash is king.
Will the Federal Reserve's influx of liquidity revive the bulls "animal spirits?" Maybe, but it likely won't "cure" what ails the market. However, the Federal Reserve, and Central Banks globally, are not going to quietly into the night. Expect more stimulus, more liquidity, and more rate cuts. If that doesn't work, expect more until it does.
The action this year is reminiscent of previous market topping processes. Tops are hard to identify during the process as “change happens slowly.” But when the process completes, it will seem as if the change occurred “all at once.”
In January we asked if this was going to be a repeat of 2018 as a strong start wound up wiping out all the gains. Well, we now know the answer. The question is what happens next, what should you do, and is the worst behind us.
The market rally on Monday was the expected reflexive bounce we discussed in this past weekend's newsletter. The question now is how far it will go, should you buy it, and what you should expect next. The risks are high; a retest of the recent lows will come sooner rather than later.
J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels. GTA […]