When markets decline—especially after long periods of sustained growth—the familiar advice resurfaces: “Be patient. Stay invested. Ride it out.” The rationale? The market always goes up over time. But there’s a critical flaw in this narrative. Your portfolio and a portfolio benchmark are entirely different things. And portfolio benchmarking, or the constant comparison of your […]
In July 2007, just before the financial crisis erupted, Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince summed up Wall Street’s dangerous exuberance: “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” Eighteen years later, Wall Street is […]
Retail speculation is once again gripping the markets. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted how the latest retail gambling vehicle—zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options—has exploded in popularity. According to CBOE, trading volumes in these contracts have surged nearly sixfold over the past five years, with retail traders now accounting for more than half of all transactions. […]
Few are as candid and historically accurate as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass when identifying structural breaks in the global economy. In a recent interview, Bass painted a grim but telling picture of China’s economic condition, warning: “We are witnessing the largest macroeconomic imbalances the world has ever seen, and they are all coming to […]
A couple of years ago, I wrote about absolute versus relative returns. Given the latest market run, I am getting a lot of questions about chasing returns, and individuals comparing themselves to the S&P 500 index. Historically, trying to beat a benchmark index leads to poor outcomes. However, understanding absolute and relative returns can help […]
Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what should investors expect? Let’s dig into the details. Over the last few months, according to […]
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.” Early 2025 saw a sharp shift in investor sentiment. Concerns over erratic trade policy, soaring debt, and weakening dollar pressure challenged America’s long-standing market dominance. Markets fell sharply in April and May, feeding a narrative of declining “US […]
On June 25th, the Federal Reserve quietly announced a significant change to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). While the headlines were muted, the implications for the U.S. Treasury market were anything but. For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market […]
In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation “transitory.” Critics argued that the Fed’s failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight and historical context, the Fed’s position wasn’t entirely misguided. Inflation […]