PRO BLOG
— PRO BLOG · 7 years ago
Gimme Shelter
Exposing a company that poses as a value defensive stock but its valuations argues otherwise.
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lance roberts
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PRO BLOG
Invest
— Invest · 7 years ago
MacroView: Will The The Market Repeat The Start Of 2018?
“Don’t fight the Fed” That is the current mantra of the market as we begin 2020, and it certainly seems to be the right call. Over the last few months, the Federal Reserve has continued its “QE-Not QE” operations, which has dramatically expanded its balance sheet. Many argue, rightly, the current monetary interventions by the […]
Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 1 month ago
Another Hike By Year End And No Cuts On The Horizon
The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is what comes next. In the prior Commentary, we pointed out three things to watch: the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the balance […]
Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 months ago
TGA Could Turn A Small Buyback Into A Market Mover
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is Treasury’s cash balance held at the Federal Reserve. Its balance is the net of cash inflows like tax receipts and outflows to pay the government’s bills. On Monday, we learned that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may fund the expanded Treasury bond buyback program by tapping the TGA. Currently, as […]
Invest
— Invest · 3 months ago
Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong – Part 2
Having just published Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit, a reader pointed us to an article from Nikkei Asia titled “Five US Tech Giants’ Hidden Debt Soars To $1.65tn On Opaque AI Funding.” He asked if the article and its claims that off-balance-sheet obligations at Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle have grown roughly eightfold in four […]
Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 3 months ago
Are Oil Prices Driving The Iran Conflict?
In physics, kinetic equilibrium describes a system in which forces are balanced, and motion continues at a steady, unchanging rate. Felix Vezina-Poirier of BCA Research argues that we can apply kinetic equilibrium to the Iran conflict. Unlike most analysts, he believes that oil prices are not the result of the ebbs and flows in the […]
Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 4 months ago
Micron: The AI Memory Supercycle Rolls On
Micron left little doubt that the supply-demand equation is grossly out of balance for AI memory chips, benefiting semiconductor companies. In its latest earnings report, Micron reported astronomical growth with revenue of $41.46 billion, up a stunning 346% year over year and 74% versus the prior quarter. Its adjusted EPS of $25.11 beat the $20.28 […]
Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 6 months ago
Does The Treasury Hold The Next Market Tailwind?
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is effectively the US Treasury’s checking account held at the Fed. The changing balance of the TGA affects the financial system’s liquidity, thereby influencing broader economic and market activity. For example, when the Treasury raises its TGA balances by issuing more debt and or collecting more tax revenue than it […]
Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 7 months ago
A Fed Balancing Act: Oil, Iran, Slower Growth
Few Fed meetings in recent memory have presented the FOMC with a more uncomfortable set of competing signals than yesterday’s. The Iranian conflict and its impact on oil and oil-dependent product prices have created the potential for an inflationary impulse, yet higher oil prices would likely slow economic activity, leading to higher unemployment. As if […]