Bull Bear Report Stock-Bond Correlation: Oil Broke The Hedge. Oil Will Fix It. Daily Market Commentary Meta Splits: The Buyback Machine Shifts To Reverse Blog Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites? Daily Market Commentary Why Small Caps Have Recently Traded Like A Bond Proxy Blog Are Bonds Pricing In A Fed Policy Mistake? Daily Market Commentary Neoclouds And Hyperscalers: Same Concept, Different Risks Daily Market Commentary The Misleading Tech Sell-Off Daily Market Commentary Warsh Says Little: Market Hears Hold Blog AI Capex And Earnings: What Happens When Growth Slows Bull Bear Report Pimco Sees A 6% 10-Year. Here’s Why “Bad Inflation” Caps Yields
Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Sunday — October 25, 2026
Houston, Texas
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lance roberts

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Markets Detached From Economic Fundamentals Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Markets Detached From Economic Fundamentals

Jerome Powell’s statement this past week, that U.S. stocks appear “fairly highly valued,” wasn’t as dramatic as Alan Greenspan’s 1996 “irrational exuberance” speech, but the market heard the echo. Both comments speak to a central tension in monetary policy: the Fed may not explicitly target asset prices, but valuations matter when they begin to feed back into financial stability. Investors often dismiss these warnings, citing years of Fed liquidity support and low interest rates. Greenspan’s caution came four years before the dot-com bubble burst

Lance Roberts 18 min read
Overbought Conditions Across Multiple Markets Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Overbought Conditions Across Multiple Markets

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of 2025 on Wednesday, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%. The move had been well-telegraphed, yet it still represents a notable pivot in policy focus. For much of the past two years, inflation had been the Fed’s primary concern, but this time the statement emphasized that “downside risks to employment have risen,” a shift toward the labor side of the mandate.

Lance Roberts 18 min read
Covered Call Strategies Gone Wild Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Covered Call Strategies Gone Wild

This past week delivered a trio of market-moving economic releases, CPI, PPI, and the annual employment revisions, that collectively shaped investor expectations heading into next week's FOMC meeting.

Lance Roberts 19 min read
Using MACD To Manage Portfolio Risk Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Using MACD To Manage Portfolio Risk

The August employment report painted a clear picture of a cooling U.S. economy. Employers added just 22,000 jobs, far below consensus expectations, signaling that hiring momentum has slowed. Even more troubling, June was revised to show a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first monthly contraction since 2020. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.3%, its highest level in nearly four years.

Lance Roberts 16 min read
Meme Markets: Investing vs. Entertainment Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Meme Markets: Investing vs. Entertainment

August turned out to be anything but typical for investors. Historically, the month is plagued by seasonal weakness, thinner liquidity, and heightened volatility as traders position ahead of September and Q3 earnings. Over the last 30 years, August has delivered some of the poorest monthly returns on average for the S&P 500. Yet in 2025, the index defied that history, grinding higher through the month and setting new intraday records above 6,500 before finishing at 6,452. The result was a modest gain for the month, but more importantly, it marked another milestone in an already extended rally

Lance Roberts 17 min read
Market Valuations Don’t Matter…Until They Do Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Market Valuations Don’t Matter…Until They Do

After the market slid lower all week, testing the 20-DMA on Thursday, Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole turned sentiment on a dime. The S&P 500 returned to record highs, and the Dow surged 900 points.

Lance Roberts 17 min read
Inflation Data Sends Markets To New Highs Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Inflation Data Sends Markets To New Highs

U.S. equities notched fresh milestones midweek before fading into Friday’s close. The July CPI print (headline +0.2% m/m, +2.7% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y) kept the “September cut” narrative intact. Following those reports, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new closing highs on Wednesday.

Lance Roberts 16 min read
US Economic Growth Shows Cracks Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

US Economic Growth Shows Cracks

The weekly Bull Bear Report covers what happened in the markets, what investors should be paying attention, and how to navigate the week ahead.

Eric Theriot 13 min read
US Economic Growth Shows Cracks Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

US Economic Growth Shows Cracks

This past week, markets were driven by trade policy shocks, monetary policy developments, and solid corporate earnings, creating a push-and-pull dynamic for investor sentiment. President Trump’s announcement of sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, doubling duties on Indian imports and imposing broad levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, rekindled trade war concerns and injected fresh geopolitical risk into the outlook. However, that was offset by Apple's announcement that it would inject $600 billion into building factories in the U.S. to bypass those tariffs. The positive response to Apple's deal with the White House sent the stock and the Nasdaq higher on the week.

Lance Roberts 13 min read