1,313 results found
Invest
A couple of years ago, I wrote about absolute versus relative returns. Given the latest market run, I am getting a lot of questions about chasing returns, and individuals comparing themselves to the S&P 500 index. Historically, trying to beat a benchmark index leads to poor outcomes. However, understanding absolute and relative returns can help […]
Invest
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.” Early 2025 saw a sharp shift in investor sentiment. Concerns over erratic trade policy, soaring debt, and weakening dollar pressure challenged America’s long-standing market dominance. Markets fell sharply in April and May, feeding a narrative of declining “US […]
Economics
In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation “transitory.” Critics argued that the Fed’s failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight and historical context, the Fed’s position wasn’t entirely misguided. Inflation […]
Invest
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings. As discussed recently, S&P Global’s current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth […]
Economics
Ray Dalio, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, is back in the media, trying to stay relevant by claiming the “deficit has become critical.” ” “It’s like … I’m a doctor, and I’m looking at the patient, and I’ve said, you’re having this accumulation, and I can tell you that this is very, very serious, and […]
Invest
Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With the media constantly pushing a “Markets In Turmoil” narrative, it’s no wonder that investor sentiment recently reached some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis. The following chart is the z-score of the retail and professional investor sentiment composite index of bullish sentiment. Notably, we […]
Invest
Fisher Investments recently wrote an interesting article asking whether corporate stock buybacks affect markets. Here is their conclusion: “Yes and no? Stocks move on supply and demand. Stock buybacks, where a company buys and takes shares off the market, theoretically reduce supply. They can also raise earnings per share, thus rewarding shareholders. So, all else […]
Economics
While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing. The reason the employment data is so important is that without employment growth, the economy stalls. It takes, on average, about 200,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth, which ultimately keeps the […]
Invest
In investing, success is often judged by numbers—returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody. These unspoken goals, while tempting, rarely lead to sustainable investment success. If there were awards for some of these […]