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The action this year is reminiscent of previous market topping processes. Tops are hard to identify during the process as “change happens slowly.” But when the process completes, it will seem as if the change occurred “all at once.”
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The market rally on Monday was the expected reflexive bounce we discussed in this past weekend's newsletter. The question now is how far it will go, should you buy it, and what you should expect next. The risks are high; a retest of the recent lows will come sooner rather than later.
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In a world of adjusted earnings, where every company is way above average, every quarter, investors quickly lose sight of what matters most in investing. "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." - Warren BuffettImaginary worlds are nice, it’s just impossible to live there.
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President Trump just proposed his latest $4.8 Trillion budget, and not surprisingly, suggests the deficit will actually decrease over the next 10-years. But this lack of a "story," is what has led us to the very doorstep of "Modern Monetary Theory," or "MMT."
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The increase in speculative risks, combined with excess leverage, leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future. The only missing ingredient for such a correction is the catalyst to bring “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace.
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In the past, we discussed how “Capitalism” was distorted by Wall Street. We’ve also reviewed some of the “myths” of capitalism, which are used to garner “votes” by politicians but are not really true. Most importantly, we discussed the fallacy that “more Government” is the answer in creating equality as it impairs economic opportunity. I […]
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A fascinating graphic was recently produced by Oxford Economics showing compounded economic growth rates over time. What should immediately jump out at you is that the compounded rate of growth of the U.S. economy was fairly stable between 1950 and the mid-1980s. However, since then, there has been a rather marked decline in economic growth. […]
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In just a little more than six months, the U.S. national debt has grown by a $1 trillion dollars. Today, Congress will debate on a $1.3 trillion “Omnibus spending bill” to fund the government through the end of September of this year. As noted by Robert Schroeder: “Last week, the debt hit $21 trillion for the […]
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In “Part 1” of this series, I discussed at length whether Dr. Robert Shiller’s 10-year cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio was indeed just “B.S.” The primary message, of course, was simply: “Valuation measures are simply just that – a measure of current valuation. If you ‘overpay’ for something today, the future net return will be lower than […]