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We recently discussed the recession signals from the NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) and the inverted yield curve. “As in 2019, we see many of the same recession signals from the NFIB survey again combined with a high percentage of yield curve inversions. Notably, out of the ten yield spreads we track, which are […]
Newsletter
The upcoming FOMC meeting will likely determine the market's direction over the next few weeks. While many market participants are hoping for a "kinder, gentler Fed," As noted previously, the recent commentary suggests such may not be the case.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its short-term interest rate at -.10% and vowed to maintain a 0.50% yield cap on its 10-year notes. Investors were expecting the yield cap to increase and thought the BOJ might raise its short-term interest rate. Instead, the BOJ disappointed, which set the yen and Japanese bonds on a […]
Invest
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks. I touched on this topic in this past weekend’s “Bull Bear Report:” Not surprisingly, the “bullish” short-term outlook garnered a substantial amount of pushback. However, there is more to this outlook than just “rosie optimism.” Let’s review what I wrote, and then we will […]
You may be thinking, why should I care about bank deposits? There are a couple of reasons, but first, consider that all money is lent into existence. The lending process and, therefore, money creation begins with bank deposits. As bank deposits shrink, as they recently have been, less money is created. As shown below, money […]
Invest
It's a "Tale Of Two Bull Markets." I review the major markets and sectors from a longer-term technical perspective to reveal the more extreme risk investors are taking currently to chase markets.
Invest
Seven words have been the hallmark of every socialist and communist system: "I'm the Government, I'm here to help." We review of the Tytler cycle and why more Government help, always leads to less prosperity and freedom.
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What few seem to realize is that the proliferation of options trading has created a new market dynamic. Do investors realize they are skiing into an avalanche?