Since going public in June 2023, Cava (CAVA) has taken the fast-casual restaurant industry and Wall Street by storm. Cava describes itself as a “Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food.” As the chart below highlights, Cava shares are up 250+% since its IPO. The return is 5x its chief […]
Per its website, MicroStrategy “provides software solutions and expert services that empower every individual with actionable advice.” While Microstrategy’s mission description may seem like a profitable enterprise, reality has a different opinion. Since 1997, the company has a cumulative net loss of $1.108 billion. Accordingly, the graphs below show its revenue has been flat to […]
The Fed cut rates on September 18th and many expect them to follow through with more rate cuts in the coming meetings. Yet bond yields have steadily risen. Why is this occurring? While there are many answers, it boils down to two primary reasons. As we will explain, the Citi Economic Surprise Index is rising. […]
JP Morgan and Wells Fargo kicked off the third-quarter earnings season on Friday. JP Morgan handily beat expectations for EPS and revenue. Furthermore, its charge-offs were slightly below expectations as credit quality remains solid. However, they increased their credit loss provision, as shown in the graph courtesy of ZeroHedge below. Such tells us they think […]
The graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows their Intelligence data rates the latest Fed meeting minutes as the most hawkish since April. Qualifying the minutes as hawkish is pretty ironic, considering the Fed’s 50bps rate cut three weeks ago was the most dovish action they have taken in a few years. Is it possible for […]
The VIX volatility index spiked on the August 5th yen carry trade sell-off and has not recovered to prior lows. Since then, it has risen steadily alongside the S&P 500. Often, the VIX declines or resides at low levels when the S&P 500 is increasing and vice versa. Might the irregular VIX/S&P 500 relationship be […]
Chinese stocks (CSI 300) opened Tuesday morning following their week-long Golden Week holiday, with a massive 11% pop higher. However, shortly after opening, the index gave up half of the surge as China’s economic planning agency did not offer additional economic, monetary, or financial stimulus. As shown below, Chinese stocks have been soaring since mid-September […]
The Fed has begun cutting interest rates with the timing and amount of future cuts predicated on incoming employment and CPI data. As the Fed likes to say, they are data-dependent in determining their course of action. Given the importance of Fed policy on the markets, one would presume that on the day of the […]
Investors are betting on Goldilocks, meaning slow but steady economic and employment growth. This scenario allows the Fed to cut rates further without a recession that frequently accompanies rate cuts. Concurrent with the market’s Goldilocks logic, investors were hoping Friday’s BLS report was weak enough to support a 50 bps rate cut but not too […]