Following a hot January CPI set of inflation data, the BLS CPI report cooled down in February. Headline CPI rose +0.2% versus +0.3% consensus and +0.5% in January. Core CPI was also +0.2% for the month. The year-over-year headline and core rates fell 0.2% from last month’s figures to 2.8% and 3.1%. The 3.1% core […]
The rally over the last two years has helped investors forget that markets also go down. After two +20% consecutive years, a sudden 8% drop from recent highs has investors panicking. Bear in mind, no pun intended, that the S&P 500 is only down 4% for 2025. Consider the graph below. It shows that the […]
In an interview on Fox this past weekend, Donald Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession. He replied: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.” Alongside his comments regarding “a period of transition,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states, “We’re seeing […]
The CNN fear greed index of investor sentiment has fallen to “extreme fear” at 18 on a scale of 0 to 100. Moreover, those expressing bearish sentiment in the AAII individual investor survey are above 60%, which is only the sixth time since 1987 that it has been that high. Watching CNBC or Bloomberg might […]
The graphs below highlight how expensive Tesla shares are compared to its competitors. The scatter plot on the left shows that Tesla shareholders are willing to pay an exorbitant price for its relatively minimal sales. Tesla’s market cap of $942 billion is $80 billion more than the combined market cap of the following fifteen largest […]
As the FINVIZ graph below shows, crude oil prices are on a significant support level. In technical analysis, the more a price bounces off a line, the more critical that trend line becomes. Furthermore, the blue trend line, which has supported crude oil prices since 2021, was a resistance line in 2019. The bottom line […]
What a difference a month makes. In mid to late January, the bond vigilantes were shorting bonds while warning that bond yields would increase due to a robust economy, large federal deficits, and higher inflation. The ten-year US Treasury note yield peaked at 4.89% on January 13. Since then, it has fallen .72% to 4.17%. […]
On Sunday night, President Trump announced the much-anticipated Strategic Crypto Reserve. While the US already has oil and gold reserves for strategic purposes, the purpose of the Strategic Crypto Reserve is unclear. Per the Wall Street Journal quote below, the reserve sounds more like an investment in an industry than a strategic reserve in the […]
The January Goods Trade Deficit fell to a record -$153 billion versus expectations of -$116 billion. Moreover, as we share below, courtesy of MacroBond, the monthly decline of $31 billion is more than double any other instance since 1955. Imports rose by 12% while exports increased by 2%. The steep decline in the trade deficit […]