The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator claims that 60.6% of the retail investors are bearish. The percentage of bears in its survey increased sharply from 40.5% at the prior reading on February 19. The AAII retail investor survey is now the most bearish it has been since September 2022. More stunning, this […]
Consumer Confidence, as surveyed by the Conference Board and University of Michigan, shows consumers are starting to lose economic confidence. Given that consumer spending drives the economy and influences inflation, confidence and the means to spend can significantly impact markets. Based on recent job data, the means (i.e., wages) to consume appear to be in […]
During Donald Trump’s first term, some investors bought into the Trump 1.0 Put. The trade was based on the market’s belief that Trump believed the stock market’s performance was a referendum on his presidency. Accordingly, investors thought that Trump would do everything he could to backstop the stock market if it fell. Thus, some investors […]
In its annual letter to shareholders this past weekend, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced that it had increased its cash holdings to $334 billion. As the Financial Times chart on the right shows, Berkshire’s cash balances have more than doubled over the last few quarters to its highest level. Additionally, cash as a percentage of […]
The coming unprecedented government job cuts will undoubtedly impact the job market. Given the labor market’s importance to Fed policy and the economy, it’s worth fully appreciating the size of the government workforce and other employees whose jobs might be affected. The following graph, courtesy of John Burns Research & Consulting, shows that 3.8 million […]
The ETF industry has undoubtedly gotten creative over the last few years. However, nothing tops the latest ETF proposed by Tuttle Capital. Per its SEC registration, the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure AI Powered ETF (UFOD) will purportedly invest over 80% of the fund’s assets in companies that they believe “have potential exposure to advanced or […]
Wages and rents were two of the most impactful factors driving higher inflation and, of recent importance, keeping it stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. As we will share, the good news is that wage growth and rents should be easing. The graph on the right shows that the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker is […]
To appreciate the recent gold price surge, we discuss three critical factors. Money Supply—The chart below shows that the ratio of gold to the money supply (M2) and the money supply tend to follow each other, albeit gold prices are more volatile. The ratio is well extended as it was in 2011. In September 2011, […]
Egg prices were up nearly 19.5% in last Wednesday’s CPI report as the Avian flu wreaks havoc on the nation’s egg supply. Despite its inconsequential role in determining inflation, Eggflation is getting much publicity. Given the Eggflation fearmongering on social media, it’s worth putting some context on egg prices and their impact on CPI. Eggs […]