Daily Market Commentary CMBS Losses Reach The AAA Tranche Again Blog Investor Optimism Wins As An Investment Strategy Bull Bear Report Jefferies Sets 9000 Market Target: Everything Must Go Right Daily Market Commentary Will Political Pressure Or Economic Hardship End The War? Blog Consumer Credit Stress: What The Data Really Shows Daily Market Commentary No Relief At The Pump Despite Crude Falling Blog Japan Breaks The ‘Debt Causes Inflation’ Narrative Daily Market Commentary The FOMC Sees Zero Downside Economic Risks Daily Market Commentary Dow Slides While Nasdaq Rallies: Omen Or Rotation? Blog Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back
Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Tuesday — September 29, 2026
Houston, Texas

Category: Newsletter

The AI Capex Bill Comes Due

The AI Capex Bill Comes Due

By Lance Roberts, Jul 25, 2026

The S&P 500 finished the week at 7,411.98, down about 0.6%, as an AI capex scare and an oil shock collided into its second straight weekly decline and the first back-to-back down weeks since March. The headline number hides what actually happened. Underneath a falling index, the average stock held up just fine.

Momentum Meltdown Catches Traders By Surprise

Momentum Meltdown Catches Traders By Surprise

By Lance Roberts, Jul 18, 2026

The headline number this week was boring, but the action underneath was not, as the momentum meltdown was tearing through the market's most crowded trade. The S&P 500 slipped about 1.5% to close at 7,457.69, the Nasdaq 100 gave back roughly 4%, and the Dow held up with a fractional loss.

Big Bank Earnings Kick Off Earnings Season

Big Bank Earnings Kick Off Earnings Season

By Lance Roberts, Jul 11, 2026

The tape flipped its script this week. As we noted two weeks ago, we rotated back to the mega-cap growth stocks. Since then, the mega-cap complex grabbed the wheel again and dragged the index within a whisker of a new record. The S&P 500 rose 1.38% to close Friday at 7,575. That leaves it less than 1% below the June 2 all-time high of roughly 7,612. The Nasdaq Composite added about 1.8%, and the winners were exactly the names you would guess.

Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?

Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?

By Lance Roberts, Jul 4, 2026

It was a holiday-shortened week, with the market closed Friday for the Fourth. The S&P 500 still added about 2% to close near 7,483, capping its best quarter in six years

Stock Market Pullback Is Healthier Than It Looks

Stock Market Pullback Is Healthier Than It Looks

By Lance Roberts, Jun 27, 2026

The headline looks ugly until you turn it over. The S&P 500 finished the week at 7,306, down 2.4% from the prior Friday, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped a hard 4.6% as the megacap technology names that have carried this market all year finally took a real hit. Most stocks rose anyway.

May Inflation Print: Why the 4.2% Headline Is an Oil Story

May Inflation Print: Why the 4.2% Headline Is an Oil Story

By Lance Roberts, Jun 13, 2026

What a week. A rocket company became the largest public offering in history. The May inflation print landed mid-week as the hottest reading in three years. And the whole tape spent five sessions hostage to a single question about the Persian Gulf. When the dust settled, the S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,431.46, up 0.65% on the week. That rally clawed back roughly a quarter of the prior Friday's brutal 2.64% plunge to 7,383.74. The Nasdaq added 0.70%, and the Dow gained 0.66%. Small caps kept doing their 2026 thing, with the Russell 2000 leading on the upside again.

Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?

Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?

By Lance Roberts, Jun 6, 2026

The melt-up finally took a breather. After nine straight winning weeks, the S&P 500 closed lower, finishing Friday at 7,384, down about 2.6% on the week and roughly 3% below Tuesday's record high of 7,609.78. The headline number buries the real story, because underneath it the market staged the sharpest rotation we've seen all year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tearing to a fresh record near 51,562 on Thursday even as the Nasdaq logged its worst day in nearly eight months. So the tape didn't fall apart. It rotated.

Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?

Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?

By Lance Roberts, May 30, 2026

The headline tape made fresh history. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, finishing up 1.43% on the week and posting its ninth consecutive weekly gain. That's the longest weekly winning streak since 2024, and only the 5th time since 1965 that has occurred. While markets previously saw weakness following such streaks, the 24- and 52-week outcomes were primarily positive, except in 1989.