Category: Invest

As the seasonal summer weakness approaches investors are now wondering if the market will retest is previous lows? We analyze the risk and reward.

The Fed is now permanently stuck at zero. The negative 4.8% decline in GDP in the first quarter was stunning. Importantly, that reading only encapsulated the impact of the economic “shutdown” in that last two weeks of the quarter. This suggests, considering the entire month of April (1/3rd of the quarter) was a wash, the […]

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each month Brett will provide you their valuable S&P 500 Valuation Chart Book. This unique analysis provides an invaluable long term perspective of equity valuations. If you are interested in learning more about their services, please connect with them.

As bad as this data looks, things will get much worse, especially retail sales. The report above was for March. There is no reason to expect a quick spring back when people do return to work, which now looks more like mid-May or early June than the end of April.

Due to my recent findings from researching the empirical data of prior market crashes since 1901, investors in the future will be able to distinguish a crash from a correction. All crashes and corrections can now be measured and categorized.  

Inflation is a real and present danger, and policy decisions are the cause. A complex crosscurrent of influences will determine the magnitude of an inflation problem.

What happens next depends on whether the current situation is a 2008-like situation or not. If it is, we will most likely sell-off again and retest the recent lows. If it is not, we are probably in for a tough slog. The true test will be the stock market’s reaction to the inevitable parade of negative news coming.

Bear markets are always a reminder of lessons forgotten. An annotated look at some of Russell Napier's classic tome "Anatomy of the Bear" and reasoning why "This Time Is Not Different."