Speculative Bull Runs And The Value Of A Bearish Tilt
The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about “TINA” (There Is No Alternative), and how “this time is different.” But that is what […]
The Psychology Of Investing In A Zero-Risk Illusion
Every market cycle eventually shifts investor psychology to the point where risk is seen as conquered. The storylines may change, from “this time it’s different” to “the Fed has our back,” but the psychology does not. When markets rise steadily […]
ChatGPT Gives Financial Advice On Volatile Markets
Following Friday’s selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question: ” How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?” That simple question generated an engaging and humorous take on financial advice for navigating volatile […]
Bear Market Losses – A Dangerous Illusion
When bear market losses occur, headlines talk in percentages: “The market dropped 20 %.” Investors nod. A 20 % decline sounds manageable, historical, and expected. As Ben Carlson recently penned: “Bear markets have some symmetry to them, at least in the short-term. In the […]
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Timing The Next Correction
In the world of technical analysis, there is one reliable indicator for measuring market risk. The relative strength index (RSI) measures overextension (in either direction). Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator. As such, it […]
Markets: Bullish Vs Bearish Case
Just recently, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities wrote an excellent piece discussing the bull versus the bear case for the markets. You look at the markets today and see a tension between expectation and reality. On one hand, equities—especially tech […]
Why Diversification Is Failing In The Age Of Passive Investing
Diversification has been the backbone of “buy and hold” strategies for the last few decades. It was a boon to financial advisors who couldn’t actively manage portfolios, and it created a massive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) industry that allowed for even […]
Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth
Alfonoso Peccatiello recently wrote an interesting piece on portfolio risk management, starting with a quote from Steve Cohen: ‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only […]
“Buy Every Dip” Remains The Winning Strategy…For Now
“Buy Every Dip” has lately been the “Siren’s Song” for this market. Such is seen in the flows into ETFs over the course of this year. Retail investors treat pullbacks as temporary noise, and their behavior borders on mechanical. Every […]