Japan didn’t just spark a currency crisis; it reminded everyone that the Fed has quietly backstopped the dollar for 60 years. The Yen intervention is not new, and while the “end of fiat, buy gold” crowd is right about the destination, they are wrong about the departure time. Every time somebody touches the plumbing of […]
A return to sound money has become the rallying cry for a growing crowd of investors, politicians, and commentators who are, understandably, fed up. Fed up with deficits that never shrink, with a national debt north of $39 trillion, with a dollar that buys a little less every year. The pitch is elegant. Back the […]
The AI “bear case” isn’t one argument; it’s three. Burry on earnings. Bernstein on circular financing. MIT on revenue. Two are half right. One falls apart on the data. Michael Burry broke a two-year silence on November 11 to accuse the world’s largest technology companies of cooking their books, calling it one of the more […]
The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. So far, the results are landing in line or better than the upwardly revised Wall Street estimates. That's the opposite of how this usually works. Analysts normally trim their forecasts as a year wears on. In 2026, they've done the opposite.
Let's start with a recent survey. Two out of three Americans now say it's a bad time to buy a house, the most negative reading Gallup has ever recorded.1 Another study showed that a record 25.2 million adults under 35 are living with their parents.
Just over a year ago, I made the case that the deficit narrative would find its cure in artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs has since published research that, on first reading, appears to refute. It isn't. But after more than thirty years of watching capex cycles play out, I've learned the right move when new data lands is to test the original argument against it.
Headline CPI just printed 4.2% year-over-year for May. The highest reading since April 2023. The 10-year Treasury punched above 4.6% on the back of it, then pulled back recently. Energy ran +23.5% over the past twelve months on the Iran war, accounting for roughly 60% of the monthly all-items gain, and the doom crowd keeps pushing this is 1979 all over again with rate hikes ahead,
Milton Friedman's famous one-liner that anchors half the inflation debates on financial television leaves out the part where the actual economics live. Once you put it back in, the doomist case gets a lot smaller.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index just printed 44.8 in May. That’s the worst reading since the survey began in 1952. That print was lower than in 2008 and the 1980 inflation panic. It was also worse than the COVID lockdowns, yet the S&P 500 continues to climb higher, Q1 corporate earnings posted 27% […]