For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that “this time is different.” Bitcoin, precious metals, and AI-linked equities rose not only because of robust fundamentals, but also because investors clung to powerful narratives about inflation, disruption, and monetary collapse. Those speculative narratives are not only seductive but also contribute to […]
Market cycles are once again at the center of the investment narrative as we head into 2026. The optimism is familiar as earnings held up in 2025, the economy avoided recession, and big tech lifted the indexes. However, those victories are already reflected in the price. As we head into 2026, with valuations extended, the […]
I have been a “South Park” fan for as long as I can remember, and while the show isn’t a market guidebook, its brutal satire cuts through nonsense better than many Wall Street commentaries. Just like on the show, characters make absurd decisions and face absurd consequences, which is familiar to investors today. For example, […]
The Wall Street consensus forecast for 2026 earnings growth is strong by historical standards. Analysts are giddy and projecting another year of double-digit growth in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). FactSet’s most recent data showed an expected 2026 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 of about 15 percent. That is well above the […]
Every January, it happens like clockwork: you drive by gym parking lots that look like a Taylor Swift concert. Go to the store, and the salad aisles are ransacked like there’s a lettuce shortage, and half of your coworkers suddenly start quoting Warren Buffett while buying stock in companies they can’t spell. You got it, […]
During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, and investors believe that nothing can go wrong, leading them to take on increasing levels […]
A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI). Here is Simon’s point. “Yet, where history does raise a red flag is if […]
One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from “The Godfather.” ““These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten […]
We’re hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidia’s valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little to no revenue. Investment in data centers, chips, and infrastructure is happening at a scale […]