The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind […]
I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates. “If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?” It’s a good question that got me thinking about the trend of economic growth, the debt, […]
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. As we noted previously: “While there have certainly been more extended periods in the market without a 2% […]
A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be. What Is A Universal Basic Income (UBI) […]
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case. As previously noted, headline events like the economy, employment, or geopolitical […]
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator. So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator […]
In bullish years, markets often have corrections. Yet, after a lengthy bullish run, it always surprises me how quickly investors and the media panic with the slightest hint of a market pullback. During bullish years, corrections happen more often than you think. However, when corrections occur, it is not uncommon to see concerns about a […]
Overly optimistic investor expectations of market returns may be a problem. To wit: “While consumers are not very confident about the economy, they are highly optimistic about the stock market. In that same consumer confidence report from the Conference Board, the expectations for rising stock prices over the next 12 months are near the highest […]
Economic “reflation” is becoming the next bullish narrative as equity valuation increases continue to outpace earnings gains, at least according to Gold Sachs and Tony Pasquariello. “If GS is correct on the big calls, the macro backdrop is set to remain friendly: the US economy should continue to grow nicely above trend — picking up […]