Daily Market Commentary
UM Inflation Expectations May Oddly Signal Disinflation
The graph below, courtesy of Jeff Weniger, shows that since 1990, spikes in the University of Michigan (UM) consumer inflation expectation index to around 5% have preceded inflation declines. As he highlights, the UM inflation expectations gauge hit 4.9% in the latest survey. The exceptions to the rule were in 2020 and 2021, which occurred […]