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Newsletter
As discussed below, that inflation report and Fed meeting sent stocks surging to all-time highs. While the bullish trend remains intact, along with a MACD "buy signal," which suggests an increased allocation to equity exposure, we have some concerns.
Newsletter
While the market set marginal new all-time highs this past week, the upside likely remains somewhat limited in the near term, given the more overbought conditions. On Friday, the market flipped back onto a MACD "buy signal," suggesting that the rally remains firmly intact, with the 20-DMA continuing to act as the primary support. Furthermore, volatility remains significantly suppressed, indicating that traders are not worried about a significant decline anytime soon. However, with that said, the FOMC meeting and inflation reports are next week, which will have an outsized impact on the broader market. Therefore, continue to manage risk accordingly.
Newsletter
Last week, we discussed consumer data suggesting the economy was weakening. This past week, downward revisions to Q1 GDP and weak personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reports confirmed that suspicion.
Newsletter
Last week, we discussed that the markets surged to all-time highs as a plethora of disappointing economic data and a weaker-than-expected inflation print lifted hopes of Fed rate cuts in the coming months. Over the last few trading days, the markets had to focus on the minutes from the previous FOMC meeting and earnings from Nvidia.
Newsletter
This past week, markets surged to all-time highs as a plethora of bad economic data and a weaker-than-expected inflation print lifted hopes of Fed rate cuts in the coming months.
Newsletter
This past week, the market broke above the 50-DMA with a solid confirmation of the MACD "buy signal." Currently, the market is decently overbought after the advance, so a pullback to retest the 50-DMA would be welcome. Such a pullback would turn the 50-DMA from previous resistance into support and reduce some overbought conditions.
Newsletter
On Wednesday, Jerome Powell's speech following the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting provided a more "dovish" than expected message. While Powell did note that progress on inflation has been lackluster, the announcement of the reversal of "Quantitative Tightening" (QT) excited the bulls.
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Investor psychology is one of the most significant reasons individuals consistently fall short of their investment goals. While one of the most common truisms is that “investors buy high and sell low,” the underlying reason is the behavioral traits that plague our investment decision-making. George Dvorsky once wrote that: “The human brain is capable of […]
Newsletter
The market took a hit this week once again as the summer weakness continued. While many attributed the decline in stocks and rise in bond yields to the recent Fed projections of "higher for longer," the action this week seemed more akin to end-of-the-quarter rebalancing for fund managers. Furthermore, September 30th marked the fiscal year-end for about 20% of fund managers who needed to make distributions and redemptions. Nonetheless, the market declined this week, with only minor support holding the market in place.