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Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Tuesday — October 27, 2026
Houston, Texas
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lance roberts

1,316 results found

Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing

As noted last week, the continuation of the market correction is unsurprising. Such happened this past week, with a strong rally on Wednesday that failed. What is clear is the market is starting to recognize that Federal Reserve rate cuts are not bullish for stocks. As we have discussed, when the Fed cuts rates, it often coincides with weaker economic activity, which precedes a decline in earnings growth. The drop in the ISM manufacturing index and a terrible employment report bolstered those concerns. Unsurprisingly, the market is beginning to discount the impact on earnings by reducing stock prices.

Lance Roberts 13 min read
Hedges For A Volatile Market- Answering A Reader Question Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 years ago

Hedges For A Volatile Market- Answering A Reader Question

A SimpleVisor subscriber asked us a poignant question; we think the answer is worth sharing. Simply put, we were asked if we had any hedges in the portfolio and how we might hedge in the future. We currently do not have any shorts or option hedges in place. However, we have trimmed some positions to […]

RIA Team 5 min read
Pullback Doesn’t Deter Investor Bullishness Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Pullback Doesn’t Deter Investor Bullishness

Previously, we noted that a pullback was needed to resolve the market's overbought and extended conditions. As expected, the correction accelerated this past week as the 20-DMA failed to hold.

Lance Roberts 12 min read
Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold

On Friday, the market broke the 20-DMA and flipped the MACD indicator back onto a short-term "sell signal." While we will likely see a rally early next week, a failure to close above the 20-DMA may suggest a further correction to the 50-DMA. A further correction is possible with the market oversold and triggering a fresh sell signal. Those triggers led us to take profits out of several positions this past week to hedge against a further decline. We will raise cash levels further if technical deterioration continues.

Lance Roberts 14 min read
Put Options – Nobody Wants Them Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Put Options – Nobody Wants Them

This past week, the market broke above 560 as Jerome Powell's testimony confirmed rate cuts are coming.

Lance Roberts 12 min read
Prices Decline Raising The Odds Of A Rate Cut Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 years ago

Prices Decline Raising The Odds Of A Rate Cut

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% last month, following 0.0% the prior month and expectations for a 0.1% increase. Core prices rose 0.1%, a tenth below last month’s reading and the consensus forecast. Year-over-year inflation is down to 3.0%. The better-than-expected inflation data further affirms the disinflation trend may be back on track. The […]

RIA Team 5 min read
Rate Cut In July? Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Rate Cut In July?

First, while markets hit an all-time high, I wouldn't read much into it. Trading volume was light due to the shortening of the week for the Independence Day holiday week. Secondly, while the market did make a new high, it remains a marginal new high tracking along the 20-DMA, which continues to act as bullish support.

Lance Roberts 11 min read
The Confidence Dichotomy Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

The Confidence Dichotomy

As shown, the market's monthly seasonality supports that view of a potential correction later this summer. July tends to be a decent performance month, with an average return of more than 2%.

Lance Roberts 11 min read
Bad Breadth Keeps Getting Worse Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Bad Breadth Keeps Getting Worse

Last week, we discussed the issue of the negative divergences and bad breadth of the market. As discussed, these negative divergences have often preceded short to intermediate-term corrective market actions. At this point, investors tend to make two mistakes. The first is overreacting to these technical signals, thinking a more severe correction is coming. The second is taking action too soon.

Lance Roberts 12 min read