Daily Market Commentary Hedge Funds Sell, Retail Buys: Whose The Smart Money? Blog Griffin May Be Right About AI. The Timing Could Be Very Wrong. Daily Market Commentary The Market’s Biggest Buyer Is Stepping Back Bull Bear Report Stock-Bond Correlation: Oil Broke The Hedge. Oil Will Fix It. Daily Market Commentary Meta Splits: The Buyback Machine Shifts To Reverse Blog Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites? Daily Market Commentary Why Small Caps Have Recently Traded Like A Bond Proxy Blog Are Bonds Pricing In A Fed Policy Mistake? Daily Market Commentary Neoclouds And Hyperscalers: Same Concept, Different Risks Daily Market Commentary The Misleading Tech Sell-Off
Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Tuesday — October 27, 2026
Houston, Texas
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lance roberts

1,316 results found

2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks? Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?

Last week, we discussed how speculation and leverage have returned in earnest to the market as investors rush to take on increasing levels of risk. With markets rising steadily all year, it is unsurprising to witness investors lulled into an elevated sense of complacency. Stocks, bitcoin, leveraged investments, and meme stocks are all surging higher, which is certainly reminiscent of the "madness" we witnessed following the Covid lockdowns. I posted the following chart on "X" Friday morning for reference.

Lance Roberts 14 min read
Extreme Speculation Has Returned Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Extreme Speculation Has Returned

For the week, while there was a bit of sloppy trading along the way, the market finished at new highs, eclipsing the 6000 level on Friday. Technically, the market remains in a very bullish setup, holding support at the 20-DMA and then breaking out to new highs. That rally reversed the short-term "sell signal," which gives the market room to trade higher into the first week of December. The rising trend line from the August lows remains the likely peak to any rally in December, and as noted last week, expect some weakness in the second and third week of December as mutual funds make annual distributions. For now, any corrective action in early December should be bought in anticipation for a rally into year end.

Lance Roberts 15 min read
Market Forecasts Are Very Bullish Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Market Forecasts Are Very Bullish

Last week, we discussed the impact of the Trump Presidency on the financial markets based on expectations of tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation. Since then, the "Trump Trade" went into full swing, pushing the markets higher; however, as we noted, that the trading had gotten a bit ahead of itself, and we saw some consolidation and profit-taking that reverted the market to the 20-DMA. Such is unsurprising given the overbought conditions with a more extreme deviation from the 50-DMA. However, the market recovered somewhat this past week, with buyers entering and reversing early morning market declines.

Lance Roberts 16 min read
“Trump Trade” Sends Investors Into Overdrive Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

“Trump Trade” Sends Investors Into Overdrive

While there are some short-term technical concerns, as discussed in "Seasonality: Buy Signals And Outcomes," there are three primary reasons to remain optimistic into year-end:

Lance Roberts 14 min read
Election Over. Now What For The Market. Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Election Over. Now What For The Market.

With the election over and the Federal Reserve cutting the overnight lending rate by another 25bps, many of the headwinds the market was hedging for are now behind us. As a result, the market surged higher, hitting our year-end target of 6000 on Friday. Furthermore, since election day, the "RE-risking" rally reversed the short-term sell signal, supporting higher prices. As we stated over the last few weeks, despite the many media-driven narratives, the underpinnings of the market remained bullish, suggesting the recent pullback to the 50-DMA was a buying opportunity.

Lance Roberts 13 min read
The Presidential Election Cometh Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

The Presidential Election Cometh

On Thursday, the market cracked the 20-DMA and swiftly fell to retest the 50-DMA. There is an important lesson in this week's action. Over the last several weeks, we have warned about the weakening of momentum and relative strength and the triggering of the MACD "sell signal." However, many followers commented that the market kept rising despite my warnings and "this time was different." The lesson is that while technical analysis is NOT perfect, the signals derived from the analysis are often a good process to follow. As always, "timing" is the most difficult challenge. The indicators told us that the market would likely "derisk" before the election, which is now evident.

Lance Roberts 13 min read
Streaks Of Bullish Wins Are Not Sustainable Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Streaks Of Bullish Wins Are Not Sustainable

Unsurprisingly, the market stumbled a bit this past week, breaking the "rising wedge" pattern to the downside. While the correction has been mild, with the election looming, some further consolidation or reversal as portfolio managers "derisk" for election risk should be expected. However, the market continues to find buyers at the 20-DMA as portfolio managers are unwilling to be "out of the market" currently.

Lance Roberts 14 min read
Q3 Earnings Estimates Remain Optimistic Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Q3 Earnings Estimates Remain Optimistic

The chart below is the WEEKLY S&P 500 chart, with three different signals to confirm the start of the seasonal period. With Friday’s close in the green, keeping the week broadly positive, all three seasonal buy signals have been triggered.

Lance Roberts 15 min read
NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts

On top of a strong job report, the latest CPI reading reduced market hopes of a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. In September, CPI rose 0.2% versus a 0.1% expectation, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.4%, which was also higher than the expectation of 2.3%. Notably, Core CPI rose 0.3% versus a 0.2% expectation.

Lance Roberts 14 min read