1,313 results found
Invest
There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I asked ChatGPT what the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs will likely be. Here is the answer: “One of the immediate consequences of increased tariffs […]
Invest
Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. Such was not unexpected, as contained in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE}. Specifically, that order stated: “[Sec 2, SubSection (h)]: Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined […]
Invest
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election. Such is particularly the case with recent executive orders signed by Trump, which fulfill Trump’s promises to “Make America Great Again.” Given that short-term market dynamics are driven primarily by sentiment, as investors, we can not dismiss […]
Economics
I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 would seem to justify such a view. However, is that historically the case, or was […]
Invest
In a recent post, I discussed Wall Street’s return estimates for 2025 for the S&P 500 index. To wit: “We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are optimistic for the coming year. The median estimate is for the market to rise […]
Invest
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way. However, while most analysts and investors expect 2025 to be another bullish year, there is always a risk of a more disappointing […]
Invest
I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices. As with all resolutions made at the beginning of a new year, it is not uncommon […]
Invest
“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which ran its series finale last year, starred Larry David as an over-the-top version of himself in a comedy series that showed how seemingly trivial details of day-to-day life can precipitate a catastrophic chain of events. The show never failed to deliver a laugh but also reminded me that unexpected events can […]
Economics
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. […]