1,313 results found
Economics
Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus payments and production (supply) was shuttered. To understand why that occurred, we need to revisit […]
Invest
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:“ “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often […]
Economics
The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn’t yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is […]
Invest
In last week’s post, “Is the correction over?” we wrote about the potential for a rally back to the 200-DMA. However, the failure of that test increased short-term concerns. As we noted in that post, there were early indications of buyers returning to the market. To wit: “The chart below has four subpanels. The first […]
Invest
Following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, there was a massive surge in media headlines stating “stagflation.” The media’s stagflation panic is unsurprising as it elicits memories of the late 1970s during the Arab oil embargo. Of course, a “stagflation” is excellent fodder for clicks and views as it scares the “bejeebers” out of people. Over the last […]
Invest
The recent sell-off has certainly sparked concerns with investors but the NYSE advance-decline line is an important technical measure to watch. However, what is it, and why does it matter? The NYSE Advance-Decline (A/D) Line is one of the most crucial market breadth indicators that investors watch to assess the overall health of the stock […]
Invest
Investors’ bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes. While concerns about the recent market correction have risen, and bearish headlines are rampant, investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. While that may be hard to fathom, negative sentiment occurs near market lows from a contrarian […]
Invest
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull […]
Invest
Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. “The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite […]