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President Biden and Republicans have agreed in principle to a debt ceiling deal. While news of a deal to increase the debt ceiling is positive, it must still pass both houses of Congress. Further complicating matters, the Treasury warned over the weekend that without a deal in hand by June 5th, the government would have […]
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Before you read our thoughts on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), pull out your wallet and count the cash in it. Then, add any cash under a mattress or in a bank vault to that amount. That total, be it $12 or a couple of thousand dollars, is the only cash you have. The bank […]
Current estimates predict the U.S. Treasury will raise between $600 and $700 billion once Congress increases the debt cap. Currently, the Treasury is drawing down its “checking account,” i.e., its Treasury General Account (TGA), as it can only replace maturing debt, not add new debt. The net result is that they are spending more than […]
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Most people think the nation’s money supply is the sole cause of inflation. They fail to realize inflation has two equal dance partners. The money supply and the velocity of the money supply dance hand in hand to determine the rate of inflation. The money supply is shrinking for the first time since at least […]
Do the headlines below sound familiar? They should because the same fears and political rhetoric as 2011 are surfacing as the nation faces yet another debt crisis stalemate. Congress has raised the debt cap 78 times since 1960, but many political and media pundits are concerned that this time is different. It’s worth looking back […]
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We have been vocal that long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment at current yield levels. However, timing the purchase of bonds will prove difficult as numerous headwinds may temporarily impede their path lower in yield. Discussing the potential headwinds to our trade idea is an important disclosure, given how often we voice our bullish […]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has some bullish and bearish news for oil prices. In the short run, the IEA sees pressure on oil prices due to recession concerns. To wit: “Prices were pressured lower by muted industrial activity and higher interest rates, which, combined, have led to recessionary scenarios gaining traction.” For context, as […]
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What if I told you that future returns could approach zero? Such seems hard to believe, considering young investors piling back into the markets since the beginning of the year. As I discussed previously, this behavior follows the clubbing many received in 2022. “A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made […]
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Today an investor can earn a 4%+ return with zero risk. For the last 15 years, such would be called a pipe dream. Today it’s reality. Consequently, investors face a risk-free rate not far from historical equity returns. This setup presents investors with options with which they are mainly unfamiliar. With the Fed purposely trying to […]