223 results found
Daily Market Commentary
“With the debt payment looming, time ran out.” That succinct summary ended a Wall Street Journal article titled: Saks Global Files for Bankruptcy, Undone by Debt and a Luxury Slump. A year ago, Saks Fifth Avenue’s parent company purchased its chief rival, Neiman Marcus, for $2.65 billion. The goal was to establish dominance and ultimately […]
Newsletter
The short answer appears to be"yes." However, it seems to be narrower, later, and more fragile than the headline mythology suggests. Importantly, the official "Santa Claus rally” window has not even started yet, as it is statistically measured as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January. Historically, that seven-session stretch has produced an average gain of about 1.3% and finishes positive “nearly 80% of the time,” according to data analysis from the long-running Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Economics
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Daily Market Commentary
Over the last few weeks, it seemed all but a done deal that Kevin Hassett would replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. That changed this past weekend as President Trump added Kevin Warsh alongside Hassett as his top Fed contenders. It’s likely that there are a couple of factors leading Trump to add […]
Invest
During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, and investors believe that nothing can go wrong, leading them to take on increasing levels […]
Invest
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, wrote a provocative Substack essay, Part 1: My Life Is A Lie, that is sparking a debate among economists and raising awareness of the affordability crisis. It’s not just the wonky economists debating the merits of his article; The Washington Post, CNN (News Central), […]
Invest
A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI). Here is Simon’s point. “Yet, where history does raise a red flag is if […]
Daily Market Commentary
Wall Street’s financial engineers thought they had found yet another way to turn financial markets into casinos. The gimmick this time is with 3x, 4x, and even 5x leveraged ETFs tied to individual stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SEC just ruled against these new proposals, apparently drawing the line at 2x leverage as the rules state. […]
Daily Market Commentary
There is a strong historical relationship between margin debt and the stock market. Given that margin debt just set a record at $1.18 trillion, it’s worth appreciating the mechanics that support this relationship and what it may tell us about how much longer the bull market may run. When stocks rise, the wealth effect kicks […]