146 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Nearly $3 trillion of notional stock options expire on Friday’s open expiration (OPEX day). Over half of the OPEX volume is in S&P 500 options, with the remainder in single stock options. The graph below provides details on the split between puts and calls, and the strike prices and open interest of the options. Almost […]
Daily Market Commentary
In Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s latest SEC disclosures, the company reported buying a nearly $1 billion stake in homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI). The purchases signal anticipation of a housing market rebound, possibly piqued by the possibility of the Fed starting a rate-cutting regime. However, while Buffett appears confident of the new home […]
Invest
There is little doubt that excess bullishness has invaded the general market psyche. Just a couple of months following the market decline in March and April, where sentiment turned exceedingly bearish, the S&P 500 hovers near its highs. Furthermore, analysts are rushing to raise price targets to 7,000 or more. Nicholas Colas of DataTrek notes […]
Daily Market Commentary
Edward Harrison of Bloomberg recently made the following important market observation: “buying stuff you don’t believe in creates downside risk.” Conviction is a measure of how much investors believe in their holdings. When conviction runs high, investors are often more willing to tolerate lower prices. In fact, some may add to their positions at lower prices. […]
Daily Market Commentary
For months, we have been warning that the labor markets are not as strong as the BLS data attests. Six months ago, we wrote: While labor market data is generally good, there are signs the labor market is at a standstill. Continuing jobless claims are steadily rising and at their highest level in over three […]
Daily Market Commentary
The graph below, from Michael Green (@profplum99), is the best way to show the logic that drives a Ponzi scheme in Bitcoin. The Ponzi scheme graph illustrates that there is a robust correlation between changes in the amount of Bitcoin held in funds (ETFs) and the price change. Simply, as new capital is used to […]
Daily Market Commentary
The cryptocurrency sphere and that of traditional finance continue to merge in ways that were previously unthinkable. To wit, Canary Capital filed documentation with the SEC to start the first ETF backed by non-fungible digital tokens. Non-fungible tokens are digital assets representing ownership of a specific piece of content. Most often, they are backed by […]
Invest
Digital Money was the title of TBAC’s April 30, 2025, presentation to the U.S. Treasury Department, and an important topic worth discussing. TBAC, short for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, is comprised of senior investment professionals from the largest banks, brokers, hedge funds, and insurance companies. Most often, the committee informs the Treasury staff on […]
Invest
Are you a “speculator” or an “investor”? This is an essential question that every individual deploying capital into the financial markets must answer. The reason is that how you answer that question determines how you should behave during market cycles. Over the last 15 years, due to repeated rounds of monetary and fiscal interventions, most investors […]