146 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has long viewed Apple as its crown jewel. In early 2024, Apple shares accounted for nearly 25% of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. However, Buffett has been selling out of Apple since then, trimming its stake by over 40%. Based on Buffett’s comments, they are reducing their holdings due to concerns about […]
Daily Market Commentary
Bitcoin is up 2% year to date, but the share price of the world’s largest holder of Bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR – formerly MicroStrategy), is down about 30% year to date. As we have noted in the past, Strategy is a Bitcoin holding company, a leveraged alternative to holding Bitcoin. Its original business, enterprise analytics software, […]
Newsletter
This past week saw the most pronounced and coordinated rotation away from high-beta assets that we’ve experienced all year. What began as routine profit-taking in a handful of large-cap technology and AI names quickly evolved into a broad, organized risk-off event that stretched across the market. Mega-cap technology, which has been the driving force behind the market’s advance, fell sharply as momentum strategies encountered their first significant hurdle in months. But the pressure wasn’t isolated there: Bitcoin, small caps, unprofitable tech, and retail-favorite thematic ETFs all joined the selloff, confirming that this was not merely a sector wobble but a complete risk reset.
Invest
During strongly trending bull markets, investors often overlook the importance of math in predicting forward returns. Such is easy to do when the market just seemingly continues to rise without regard to fundamentals. The current environment is also heavily influenced by “passive indexing,” which has distorted market dynamics. However, none of this should be surprising, given […]
Daily Market Commentary
On many recent occasions, we have noted that the market breadth is poor and appears to be worsening. By worsening, we mean that the number of market leaders is declining, and a growing number of stocks, stock factors, sectors, and asset classes are lagging. Currently, the small list of stock factors showing up in SimpleVisor’s […]
Daily Market Commentary
The phrase “debasing the currency” is all the rage in the media. Moreover, the debasement narrative is used to support the significant surge in gold and other precious metal prices. We have written a few articles on the subject of debasement, for example: Dollar Debasement and Debasement: What It Is and Isn’t. To help further […]
Daily Market Commentary
Gold and bitcoin are touted as the “anti-dollar”, or in some people’s minds, possible replacements for the US dollar. Thus, one would expect the dollar-debasement trade to benefit gold and bitcoin similarly. The reality throughout this year has not been what many would expect. For example, gold is up over 50% this year, while bitcoin […]
Invest
We live in what Brett Arends claimed as “The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative. The MarketWatch piece puts it bluntly: “At one level, there […]
Daily Market Commentary
The chart below, courtesy of Apollo’s Torsten Slok, shows that small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed small-cap companies with positive earnings by about 30% since early April. Per Torsten: “Something remarkable is going on in the equity market. Stock prices of companies with negative earnings have in recent months outperformed stock prices of companies […]