Electricity Demand May Cure Debt Concerns
The future of electricity demand for everything from electric cars to Bitcoin mining to artificial intelligence may also be the cure for our debt concerns. Before you dismiss that statement, let me explain. One of the bears’ primary arguments against […]
The Risk Of Recession Isn’t Zero
As we discussed recently, Wall Street economists increasingly believe the risk of recession has fallen sharply. To wit: “Economists don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they, on average, forecast sub-1% growth in each of […]
CRE Pain is Just Getting Started
The vacancy rate of commercial real estate is higher today than at any point in the 2008 global financial crisis, per the Wall Street Journal. Yet, the CRE industry isn’t experiencing the pain one might expect to see with such […]
Market Bubble? A Function Of Psychology.
Last week, we suggested we could see a further correction this week, given some of the weaknesses that had been accruing. Such was the case until Wednesday's FOMC meeting announcement. While the meeting was largely as expected, with no real change to outlook, the outcome was seen as primarily "dovish" as Powell reaffirmed the Fed was still on track to cut rates three times this year.
The Calm Before the Storm
It’s the last trading day of 2023, and not much is happening around the market. Stocks have edged higher this week, and bonds rallied on light volume. We expected this much, as we previously wrote, but this could be the […]
FOMC Pivot Sends Stocks Soaring (Market Update)
As we will discuss, the FOMC pivot sent stocks soaring and bond yields lower, as the message was more dovish than even the bulls expected. Notably, as measured by the volatility index, any bearishness was crushed.
The Fed Says Higher For Longer, And The Market Agrees
Jerome Powell and the Fed have been pounding the “higher for longer” table to prepare the markets for a sustained period of high interest rates. Powell did not waiver from the stance at yesterday’s post-FOMC press conference. Until the last […]
Uninversion Not A Yield Curve Inversion Signals Recessions
Our most recent article, Treasury Yield Curves- Is This Inversion Different, explains why inverted yield curves have always preceded recessions. In a nutshell, U.S. and global economic growth heavily depend on increasing debt levels and are very sensitive to the […]
Is A Rolling Recession Helping The Markets?
Is a "rolling recession" helping the markets? Such was a thought proposed by Liz Ann Sonders last week that is worth thinking about. However, before that, let's review the market action from this week.