PRO COMMENTARY

Tuesday’s JOLTs report is one of many data points showing that the labor market is near or back to the prevailing conditions before the pandemic. It’s not just JOLTs and the labor market normalizing; most other economic indicators show the […]

Let’s step back and ignore the last four years in which the economy cratered with the onset of the pandemic and then boomed on massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. Let’s also try to ignore the peak 6% core PCE inflation […]

Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues breathed a sigh of relief Friday morning as the PCE inflation report was weaker than expected. The headline PCE price index was +0.0% versus expectations of a 0.1% increase and a previous monthly change […]

The recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey data show a state of cognitive dissonance among U.S. citizens. Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person believes in two contradictory things simultaneously. For instance, the latest Conference Board survey shows that expectations for […]

Japan holds $1.150 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities, well above the next major foreign holder, China, which has $770 billion. Therefore, given Japan holds 3.3% of all Treasury debt, it is worth appreciating the recent news that Japan is selling […]

The unique graph below caught our attention, compelling us to read Solar Power Is Going To Be Huge by the Economist. The graph shows that solar energy will be the primary energy source for the world by 2040 under its […]

Over the last six-plus months, we have written plenty on how a few stocks lead the market higher while a large majority languishes. For example, in our latest Newsletter, Bad Breadth Keeps Getting Worse, we wrote the following: “With a […]

Consumers are turning away from name-brand foods in an attempt to cut back on spending. Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies such as Proctor & Gamble, General Mills, and Kellogg benefited from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic as private label […]

The chart below, courtesy of @KobeissiLetter on X, depicts downtown cell communication data for several major metropolitan areas as of March 2024. Cell phone activity during working hours is significantly below pre-pandemic levels in almost every major city across the […]

The chart below suggests that global diversification could be dead. The S&P 500 notched a total return of 13.3% annually over the past 15 years, while the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indices returned 5.9% and 3.2% per annum […]

Tesla investors are betting on the EV maker’s path to tech-caliber profitability. However, the manifestation of that investment thesis is still a pretty long way off, as shown by the degree to which Tesla dwarfs other mega cap valuations in […]

Over the past few months, we have witnessed a decided deterioration in consumer spending. For instance, first-quarter sales from many large retailers showed little to no growth. Economic data like Q1 GDP and the recent retail sales report further confirm […]

Bad market breadth seems to be a hallmark of the rally off of the 2022 lows. Simply, very few stocks are leading markets higher, while many stocks languish. Consider that the equal-weighted S&P 500 index (RSP) is up 3.70% since […]

The Fed got good news yesterday, with the headline CPI coming in at 0% for the month. More importantly, core CPI rose by +.16% versus expectations of +.30%. That brings the year-over-year core CPI rate to 3.4%, a tenth below […]

The Fed often stresses that it prefers core inflation measures, which exclude food and energy prices. They do this for a few reasons. First, food and energy tend to be more volatile than most other goods. Accordingly, they can distort […]

Degen traders, short for degenerates, are taking storm of the markets. The Wall Street Journal recently published Meet The Degen Traders Fueling The Latest Meme-Stock Mania. The article introduces its readers to a new type of investor creating incredible volatility […]

The BLS jobs report showed the economy added 272k jobs, well above expectations of 175k, and the 152k jobs reported by ADP. Also pointing to a strong labor market, average hourly earnings were 0.1% above expectations at +0.4%. While the […]

Yes, you read that right: Texas will host a stock exchange. BlackRock and Citadel are lead investors in a new national stock exchange that plans on calling Texas its headquarters. The Texas Stock Exchange will file for registration with the […]

Here we go again. At the peak of the mortgage bubble, leading to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), lenders were offering zero down mortgages. As you may remember, that ended poorly. Accordingly, we presumed that the mistake would not be […]

Crude oil prices have fallen by 10% over the last five days and nearly 20% since early April. As we will share, a few factors are negatively impacting the price of crude oil. First, OPEC surprised the markets this past […]

GameStop shares traded nearly 100% higher in pre-market trading before Monday’s official 9:30 ET opening. The reason is a Tweet and Reddit post from Roaring Kitty. On Twitter, he shared the picture below of an Uno playing card. Further, on […]

In mid-March, we presented daily Commentary readers with a section entitled, Add Cocoa To The List Of “Mooning” Assets. When we wrote the article, the price of cocoa was up by 70% for the year, in line with year-to-date gains […]

We haven’t written lately on Cathie Wood and her ARKK Innovation ETF. But given the popularity of her funds, their horrendous results over the last three years, and Wood’s preposterous claims, let’s knock on Cathie Wood and ARKK. Wood started […]

The graph on the left below, courtesy of Arbor Data Science, shows that $8 billion of funds flowed into U.S. large-cap ETFs, leaving every other broad ETF sector in the dust. Not surprisingly, U.S. large-cap stocks, consisting of the S&P […]

Nvidia shares have risen by 600% in the last two years. While some say its shares are now grossly overpriced, its earnings and sales growth argue otherwise. Nvidia’s surging stock prices typify what is happening with many stocks related to […]

Thursday’s Commentary led with a discussion of how sales at major retailers were slowing appreciably. The takeaway from the piece is that personal consumption, accounting for two-thirds of GDP, is slowing. A reader emailed us, “Not so fast with your […]

With the stock price of Nvidia (NVDA) now trading at over $1,000 per share, Nvidia stock has been up 270,000% since it went public. If you bought 1000 shares of Nvidia at its IPO in 1999 for a mere $376 […]

One repeated theme in the current round of earnings is that personal consumption is slowing down. Last month, McDonald’s, Starbucks, and many other retail-oriented stocks fell on weak sales. This week, we are reminded again via poor sales from Target, […]

“Recently, we have had confusing divergences in the major stock market indexes,” starts a reader’s question. He goes on to ask why there are days like Monday when one index is down by a decent amount and another posts moderate […]

This Wednesday’s Nvidia (NVDA) quarterly earnings announcement will be the most watched earnings report of the quarter. Not only will Nvidia’s shareholders pay close attention, but many non-shareholders will watch as the results could have a big impact on the […]