Inflation in the European Union is nearing 2%, expected to dip below it in 2026 and 2027 and then settle at its 2% target thereafter. The ECB’s President Lagarde and other ECB members have recently stated that they are comfortable with the central bank’s current interest rate level. The markets are taking the ECB’s public […]
In 1850, Economist Frederic Bastiat famously wrote an essay entitled “That which is seen, and that which is not seen.” The first chapter, “The Broken Window,” argues that good economics requires considering not just the immediate, visible effects of an action but also the delayed, less obvious (unseen) consequences. Unfortunately, most commentators, when asked about […]
Blue Owl Capital spooked AI investors on Wednesday when the Financial Times reported that the firm, one of Oracle’s larger financing partners for major U.S. data centers, decided not to provide equity backing for a $10 billion data center Oracle is building in Michigan. This planned facility is part of Oracle’s collaboration with OpenAI under […]
According to Bloomberg, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been increasing the mortgages and mortgage-backed securities they hold on their own balance sheets. At their peak, before the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie held a combined total of $1.6 trillion in mortgages. As we share below, courtesy of Bloomberg, their portfolio sizes are well below […]
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed Trump’s inclusion of Kevin Warsh in the race for Federal Reserve chair. Today, we compare some key differences between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Understanding what each contributes to the Fed helps us better assess their effects on capital markets. Kevin Warsh was a Fed Governor from 2006 through 2011. We learned […]
Over the last few weeks, it seemed all but a done deal that Kevin Hassett would replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. That changed this past weekend as President Trump added Kevin Warsh alongside Hassett as his top Fed contenders. It’s likely that there are a couple of factors leading Trump to add […]
In 2015, Google wrote a $900 million check to SpaceX for a roughly 7.5% stake in Elon Musk’s budding aerospace/rocket company. At the time, SpaceX was valued at $12 billion. Ten years later, Google’s early investment in SpaceX is now being framed as a great trade, not just because of the massive profit it will […]
We received the following question from a client: “I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay it back?” A third of the approximately $30 trillion in US Treasury debt equates to […]
There is a growing divergence of views among FOMC members. Some remain dovish, favoring more rate cuts. Their argument is based on a belief that inflation will continue to move toward the 2% target and that the weakening labor market benefits from lower interest rates. On the other side of the aisle are hawkish views. […]