The JOLTs data released on Wednesday paint a picture of labor market stagnation. The graph below shows that the number of job openings has fallen to levels similar to those right before the pandemic. While the number of openings seems somewhat stable, layoffs are slowly increasing, while new hires are near a 15-year low. Similarly, […]
Bill Dudley, a respected economist and President of the New York Fed during the Financial Crisis, penned a Bloomberg editorial outlining six challenges facing the Fed in 2026. Given his deep background in economics and intimate knowledge of the Fed, it’s worth providing a brief summary of his views. Independence is at the top of […]
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the potential impact of regime change in Venezuela on the energy sector. Today, we extend the analysis and examine other reasons for the invasion. The following theories are based on a Substack commentary from Tracy Shucart, an economist and resources trader. For starters, Tracy makes it clear that oil is not the […]
Venezuela holds 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves. Not only are they the largest, but as shown in the Statista graphic below, they hold approximately seven times that of the United States. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela has fallen well short of its ability to supply the world. US sanctions and the significant deterioration […]
Tesla EV deliveries totaled 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, leaving the company behind China’s BYD, which delivered more than 2.2 million EVs for the year. The result marks a second consecutive annual decline in Tesla EV deliveries, reinforcing the growing pressure on the company’s core automotive business. Fourth-quarter deliveries fell sharply year over year, underscoring […]
YTD returns across major U.S. asset classes continue to reflect a highly concentrated market. The Finviz chart below does a nice job illustrating YTD returns across a wide array of futures contracts. Large-caps dominate YTD equity returns, while small- and mid-cap stocks lag amid tighter financial conditions and slower earnings growth. Outside of equities, YTD […]
Most Americans are paying higher electricity prices, and the pressure is unlikely to ease anytime soon. According to the Wall Street Journal, electricity prices have risen meaningfully across much of the country since 2022, and the drivers extend well beyond the frequently cited surge in data-center demand. While electricity prices had historically tracked inflation, that […]
GDP, released on Tuesday, showed that the economy grew by a larger-than-expected 4.3%. Powering the strong economic growth was personal consumption, which rose by 3.5%. Consumers are spending!. What’s unusual about that statement is that consumer sentiment remains historically weak. Typically, there is a strong correlation between personal consumption and consumer sentiment. As we share […]
On Monday night, copper prices, as shown below, reached an all-time high of over $12,000 per metric ton. Copper is often referred to as “Doctor Copper” because it serves as a barometer of global economic activity. However, the current surge in prices is not due to sharply rising demand; tariffs and physical dislocation are heavily […]