PRO COMMENTARY

As expected yesterday, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate. With the expected 25bps rate cut, the new range for Fed Funds is 4.50-4.75%. The redlined second paragraph below, regarding inflation, is the only meaningful change to the FOMC statement. […]

After Tuesday night’s initial election results started to point to increasing odds of a Trump victory, bond yields began to rise sharply, as shown below. The surge in rates was not a sudden move. Over the past month, betting odds […]

Some gold and Bitcoin bugs claim the U.S. dollar is being inflated away and that our politicians and the Fed are abusing its status as the world’s reserve currency. While the narrative may sound logical, the fact of the matter […]

The number of residential construction workers has almost doubled since the aftermath of the financial crisis and housing bust. The graph below on the left shows that after a brief hiccup during the early days of the pandemic, the number […]

With election eve upon us, we thought it would be helpful to share market based presidential election polls along with Greg Valliere’s final thoughts. The graph on the top left shows the price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), […]

It’s too early for the Fed to claim the infamous “mission accomplished” for inflation. However, yesterday’s PCE price index is now within the Fed’s mission accomplished range. The PCE price gauge rose 0.2% monthly and 2.1% year over year. That […]

The last two Halloweens capped off a few frightful months for bondholders. However, as we share below, 10-year bond yields reversed course on Halloween in 2022 and 2023. Will 2024’s harrowing October for bondholders end with Halloween’s ghosts and goblins? […]

Many events could roil the markets over the next two weeks and/or send them surging. Accordingly, it’s worth summarizing the political, monetary, and economic schedule to prepare for market turbulence. The intense schedule kicked off yesterday with the JOLTs report […]

Along with this week’s BLS, JOLTs, and ADP labor market reports are the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims data from the BLS. While the market doesn’t seem to focus on the continuing and initial jobless claims data as much […]

The Tweet on the left below from Charlie Bilello makes a strong case for a passive, buy-and-hold investment strategy. Supporting his graphical evidence is a quote from investment legend Charlie Munger, alluding that investors should buy and hold and let […]

What a difference two weeks make. Despite a 15% gain on Thursday, Tesla shares are back to where they were two weeks ago. The stock fell roughly 15% when its Cybercab robo-taxi presentation was a dud. As further attestation to […]

In March, we wrote an article on the Bougie Broke. This consumer group spends above their means while sharing their purchases on social media. Importantly, these consumers shed some light on consumer confidence. Simply, it’s easier to be Bougie Broke […]

Bloomberg states: “The presidential race is still a coin-toss with two weeks to go, but Republican Donald Trump has the advantage over Democrat Kamala Harris in betting markets. His support for higher tariffs and looser fiscal policy has been seen as unfriendly […]

Starting in January, Amazon workers will be expected to work in the office five days a week. While most other companies are adapting to work-from-home schedules and even offering them as a benefit, Amazon is bucking the trend. From a […]

It’s no secret that bond yields are heavily impacted by inflation and inflation expectations. Moreover, oil prices have a high correlation with inflation. So, to answer why bond yields are rising recently, it’s helpful to check the oil price. Since […]

Wednesday’s Commentary discussed the shockingly weak booking numbers from ASML. Given that ASML is a large manufacturer of chip-making machines, we asked: “If the chip industry is facing insatiable demand, why such a stunning decline in the need for chip-making […]

Since going public in June 2023, Cava (CAVA) has taken the fast-casual restaurant industry and Wall Street by storm. Cava describes itself as a “Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food.” As the chart below […]

Per its website, MicroStrategy “provides software solutions and expert services that empower every individual with actionable advice.” While Microstrategy’s mission description may seem like a profitable enterprise, reality has a different opinion. Since 1997, the company has a cumulative net […]

The Fed cut rates on September 18th and many expect them to follow through with more rate cuts in the coming meetings. Yet bond yields have steadily risen. Why is this occurring? While there are many answers, it boils down […]

JP Morgan and Wells Fargo kicked off the third-quarter earnings season on Friday. JP Morgan handily beat expectations for EPS and revenue. Furthermore, its charge-offs were slightly below expectations as credit quality remains solid. However, they increased their credit loss […]

The graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows their Intelligence data rates the latest Fed meeting minutes as the most hawkish since April. Qualifying the minutes as hawkish is pretty ironic, considering the Fed’s 50bps rate cut three weeks ago was […]

The VIX volatility index spiked on the August 5th yen carry trade sell-off and has not recovered to prior lows. Since then, it has risen steadily alongside the S&P 500. Often, the VIX declines or resides at low levels when […]

Chinese stocks (CSI 300) opened Tuesday morning following their week-long Golden Week holiday, with a massive 11% pop higher. However, shortly after opening, the index gave up half of the surge as China’s economic planning agency did not offer additional […]

The Fed has begun cutting interest rates with the timing and amount of future cuts predicated on incoming employment and CPI data. As the Fed likes to say, they are data-dependent in determining their course of action. Given the importance […]

Investors are betting on Goldilocks, meaning slow but steady economic and employment growth. This scenario allows the Fed to cut rates further without a recession that frequently accompanies rate cuts. Concurrent with the market’s Goldilocks logic, investors were hoping Friday’s […]

The number of publicly listed U.S. companies has significantly decreased, from 7,300 to 4,300 in the last 30 years. At the same time, the number of private companies has risen fivefold. Per a Bloomberg article entitled The Stock Market Is […]

Following the Fed’s somewhat aggressive 50 bps rate cut two weeks ago, the stock and Fed Funds futures markets started to get ahead of themselves. Accordingly, market participants expected the aggressive pace of easing to continue through the remainder of […]

Over the last month, China has injected its economy with an incredible amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus, which has resulted in extreme optimism in its stock market. As we share below, the Hang Seng Tech index and the broader […]

The Fed got a welcome bit of news on Friday with the PCE price index. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation fell to 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. That is the lowest reading since February 2021. The Fed’s 2% inflation […]

Bloomberg cites economist Richard Koo, who claims China is in a balance sheet recession. A balance sheet recession, as defined by Koo, is as follows: He defines a balance-sheet recession as a situation in which households and businesses divert more […]