Category: Newsletter

U.S. equity markets delivered mixed performance last week. Major indices generally held near record levels even as volatility increased and macro and policy risks surfaced. Notably, breadth has expanded as the rotation from technology to other sectors continued. Such was particularly notable in materials, industrials, and transportation. We noted on January 8th that a rotation into defensive areas was likely. Since then, staples and energy have significantly outperformed.

The S&P 500 ended the first week of 2026 with a gain of roughly 1.1%, marking a positive start to the year. Notably, the index rose in four of the first five trading sessions, driven by strength in energy and financials, as well as a rotation into cyclical sectors. That rotation is something we discussed over the last several weeks, and we are now seeing value outperform growth as market breadth improves.

Let's start this week by wishing you a blessed, happy, and prosperous New Year. We are looking forward to spending another year working together to build better portfolio outcomes. With that said, let's dig into what happened in 2025.

U.S. equity markets began the holiday‑shortened trading week on a firm footing. Broad gains in major indexes and the start of the Santa Claus rally marked this week. Following modest volatility in trading earlier in December, sentiment improved significantly as investors bet on year-end flows. As shown, the CNN Fear-Greed Index has moved materially higher from its readings earlier in the month.

The short answer appears to be"yes." However, it seems to be narrower, later, and more fragile than the headline mythology suggests. Importantly, the official "Santa Claus rally” window has not even started yet, as it is statistically measured as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January. Historically, that seven-session stretch has produced an average gain of about 1.3% and finishes positive “nearly 80% of the time,” according to data analysis from the long-running Stock Trader’s Almanac.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting this past week delivered a deeply dovish outcome for markets. The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate reduction this year. While the vote was 9‑3, there was notable dissent on both sides of the policy debate. Three officials opposed any change, and one called for a larger cut. While unsurprising, it underscores the internal disagreement about the direction of the economy.

Markets opened in December with a surge in optimism as retail investors regained their "bullish spirit." That improvement continues to build on the bullish case we discussed last week:

Markets surged into the Thanksgiving holiday, ending the week with substantial gains across all major U.S. indexes. The S&P 500 rose by approximately 3.7%, marking one of its strongest weeks in the past six months. The catalyst was a combination of falling bond yields and increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate hikes. Currently, Kalshi (prediction market) is projecting an 80% chance of a rate cut in December.

The markets experienced another volatile trading week as we head into a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed the week lower, but rallied on Friday as options expiration took hold. The consistent selling pressure in AI and semiconductor-related stocks had reversed previous overbought conditions enough for a bounce. The big news was Nvidia's earnings. Despite the market's poor reaction (a very normal response following its earnings report), the numbers were stellar.