Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly
Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus […]
The Consumer Is Tapping Out
The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag […]
The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment […]
Stagflation Panic: A Misdiagosed Media Spin
Following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, there was a massive surge in media headlines stating “stagflation.” The media’s stagflation panic is unsurprising as it elicits memories of the late 1970s during the Arab oil embargo. Of course, a “stagflation” is […]
U.S. Recession Risks Not As High As The Media Suggests
U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. “Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn. The warnings coincided […]
Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.” The entire article is worth reading, but here are the […]
The Importance of Asset Allocation in Building a Resilient Investment Portfolio
A well-structured asset allocation strategy is the foundation of a resilient investment portfolio. It determines how your investments are distributed across different asset classes, balancing risk and return to align with your financial goals. Proper asset allocation can help you […]
CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What […]
The Tariff Risk Isn’t In Inflation (Part II)
For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. […]