As equity valuations approach the record highs of 1999, investors are growing anxious. This unease is partly driven by the media issuing grim warnings, often based in part on CAPE valuations. Consider the following headlines and their summaries. The graph shows the S&P 500 and CAPE since 1920. Given how the market performed after the […]
We live in what Brett Arends claimed as “The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative. The MarketWatch piece puts it bluntly: “At one level, there […]
Gold prices are soaring. And with each tick higher, more and more market pundits and investors are coming out of the woodwork, asserting that dollar debasement is the reason. Is that the correct reason, or might gold be in a momentum-fueled speculative bubble like many other assets? The answer has significant implications for the price […]
The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about “TINA” (There Is No Alternative), and how “this time is different.” But that is what a speculative bull run looks and feels like. However, deep inside, you know there are […]
Every market cycle eventually shifts investor psychology to the point where risk is seen as conquered. The storylines may change, from “this time it’s different” to “the Fed has our back,” but the psychology does not. When markets rise steadily and volatility remains low, investors confuse stability with safety. That’s precisely the illusion forming in […]
The graph below presents another opportunity to revisit how capitalism and the economic freedom it entails lead to prosperity. The scatter plot below shows the intersection of The Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom Index with per capita GDP for 102 of the largest economies. Before analyzing the graph and what it implies for capitalism, let’s gain […]
Following Friday’s selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question: ” How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?” That simple question generated an engaging and humorous take on financial advice for navigating volatile markets. In this week’s post, I thought it would be helpful to review ChatGPT’s advice […]
It’s odd to consider, but a recession could flip our bullish outlook on bonds to bearish. It’s unusual because typically, inflation drops during a recession, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices. While we believe that if an economic downturn or recession occurs soon, the immediate effect on bonds will be favorable. However, the […]
When bear market losses occur, headlines talk in percentages: “The market dropped 20 %.” Investors nod. A 20 % decline sounds manageable, historical, and expected. As Ben Carlson recently penned: “Bear markets have some symmetry to them, at least in the short-term. In the long term, bull markets versus bear markets are asymmetric. Things are not balanced. Look at […]