It is long past the time that we face the fact that “Social Security” is facing a retirement crisis. In June 2022, we touched on this issue, discussing the stark realities confronting Social Security. “The program’s payouts have exceeded revenue since 2010, but the recent past is nowhere near as grim as the future. According to the […]
Recently, retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession. Such would seem logical given that, historically, small capitalization companies tend to perform best during the early stages of an economic recovery. The recent exuberance for small-cap equities is also unsurprising, given […]
Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed […]
Economic growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown or recession, driven by continued increases in deficit spending. In fact, the U.S. Treasury recently reported the December budget deficit, which shows the U.S. collected $429 billion through various taxes while total outlays hit $559 billion. As noted, the problem remains on how the economy has […]
In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply. The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a “soft landing” is at hand. However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought. To understand why such is the […]
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing” or “no recession” outcome for the economy. Are these recessionary indicators with near-flawless track records wrong this time? Will it be a soft landing in the economy […]
Democrats should start worrying about the level of debt and the increasing deficit. I previously discussed this issue when President Obama held the White House, when Marshall Auerback, via the Nation, wrote: “Delivering on big progressive ideas like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal will never happen until Democrats get over their fear […]
There is a zero to a negative multiplier of debt on economic growth. The recent spending spree of the Government to facilitate a transition to a socialistic economy requires a massive increase in debt.