Goldman Sachs released its 2024 forecast for the S&P 500 and the economy. “We forecast the S&P 500 index will end 2024 at 4700, representing a 12-month price gain of 5% and a total return of 6% including dividends. Our baseline assumption during the next year is that the US economy continues to expand at […]
All four broad CPI inflation measures were below expectations for the first time in a long while. Headline CPI for October was 0.00%, with year-over-year inflation at 3.2%. Core CPI was 0.2%, with year over year at 4.0%. All four were .10% below what was expected. The Tweet of the Day shares a chart showing […]
Moody’s, the last of the three major credit rating agencies to have an AAA rating on the United States government, put Uncle Sam on credit watch negative. The AAA rating is still intact. But, Moody’s warns investors and the Treasury Department that a rating downgrade to AA is probable unless serious budgetary steps are taken […]
Our most recent article, CFNAI, The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number, shares an important economic metric that many investors tend to ignore. Further, unlike the more popular economic data points, CFNAI is forward-looking. Speaking of economic statistics that are not well covered is the trucking industry. Trucking services account for nearly 6% of GDP; […]
In 2021, used car prices often made headlines as one of the goods responsible for the spike in inflation. Two years ago, new car inventories were depleted at most dealers. With stimulus checks in hand and consumers needing a car, most people had no choice but to buy a used car. As a result, used […]
On the eve of the Hamas raid on Israel, crude oil was trading at $83 a barrel. It declined by $10 in the month leading to the attack. The narrative at the time was that global economic growth was weakening. Remember that the pre-pandemic (2015-2019) average was in the low $50s, so the price at […]
From mid-July through September, the U.S. dollar rose steadily. Over the period, the dollar’s value versus a basket of global currencies rose by 7%. Supporting the rally was a very hawkish Fed willing to keep raising rates. Equally important, other central banks were starting to back away from their inflation-fighting, hawkish policies. As we show […]
Over the last week, some of the largest and most well-followed investors, also known as whales, turned bullish on bonds. The largest whale is famed hedge fund investor, billionaire, and philanthropist Stanley Druckenmiller. A week ago, Druckenmiller, speaking at the Robin Hood Foundation conference, said he was taking “massive leveraged positions” in two-year Treasury notes. […]
The October labor report, released Friday, indicated slowing job growth in the US last month. The economy added 150k jobs in October versus a consensus estimate of 180k. A sharp decline from the 297k jobs added in September, and although the media is touting a “goldilocks labor report,” the numbers are more concerning under the […]