There is a gap between the logic of the stock and bond markets. Most stock market analyst expectations are bullish, while Fed Funds futures warn of a recession. The following Business Insider interview with Jeremy Seigel highlights the dichotomy of opinions. Per the article: “The S&P 500 could surge by 10% to a record high […]
Since 2022, credit card debt has grown 10% annually to a record high of $1.08 trillion. That is double the growth rate prevailing before the pandemic. As banks tighten lending standards and an increasing number of credit card holders max out their cards, some consumers are turning to buy now, pay later loans. Buy now, […]
“U.S. (corporate) high-yield bonds have sold off at the fastest pace since March, when traders were worried about a banking market collapse. Spreads have widened by nearly half a percentage point since Dec. 28, the fastest pace since March 16“- Lisa Abramowicz- Bloomberg. The yield spread, or differential, between junk-rated corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries […]
Since January 2022, nominal GDP has grown by $2.5 trillion or 5.77% annually. Such a growth rate is much better than the 4.30% annualized growth rate in the three years leading up to the pandemic. In fact, the last time the three-year annualized growth rate for the economy was better than that was after the […]
Quite often, year-end trading is not a function of recent economic trends, earnings projections, or other traditional economic/fundamental/geopolitical factors. Instead, window dressing, mutual fund rebalancing, tax loss selling, and other seasonal factors often take charge as December marches on. Accordingly, trading at the start of a new year is also heavily affected by the hangover […]
Our first article of the year, January Stats & New Year Investing Resolutions for 2024, provides a review of what we might expect in 2024. 2024 is a little unique as the upcoming presidential election will certainly be a critical factor driving markets. Election years tend to have better performance. This occurs in part because […]
Happy New Year! To get an idea of what may lie ahead in 2024, we need to briefly review the market landscape through the end of last year. The S&P 500 finished the year roughly 25% higher, but as shown in Friday’s Tweet of the Day, the top 10 stocks were behind approximately 75% of […]
It’s the last trading day of 2023, and not much is happening around the market. Stocks have edged higher this week, and bonds rallied on light volume. We expected this much, as we previously wrote, but this could be the “calm before the storm” with important economic data coming over the first two weeks of […]
Human capital is an important input for growth at non-manufacturing tech companies such as NVDA. It fills a role as vital as CAPEX to a manufacturing company. Employee knowledge accumulates over time, carries positive externalities, and is often the lifeblood of innovation at these firms. However, current accounting principles were developed prior to the rise […]