The ETF industry has undoubtedly gotten creative over the last few years. However, nothing tops the latest ETF proposed by Tuttle Capital. Per its SEC registration, the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure AI Powered ETF (UFOD) will purportedly invest over 80% of the fund’s assets in companies that they believe “have potential exposure to advanced or […]
Wages and rents were two of the most impactful factors driving higher inflation and, of recent importance, keeping it stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. As we will share, the good news is that wage growth and rents should be easing. The graph on the right shows that the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker is […]
To appreciate the recent gold price surge, we discuss three critical factors. Money Supply—The chart below shows that the ratio of gold to the money supply (M2) and the money supply tend to follow each other, albeit gold prices are more volatile. The ratio is well extended as it was in 2011. In September 2011, […]
Egg prices were up nearly 19.5% in last Wednesday’s CPI report as the Avian flu wreaks havoc on the nation’s egg supply. Despite its inconsequential role in determining inflation, Eggflation is getting much publicity. Given the Eggflation fearmongering on social media, it’s worth putting some context on egg prices and their impact on CPI. Eggs […]
In mid-March, the government is expected to hit the debt ceiling. As has seemingly become the norm, dire threats from both political parties will start shortly. However, despite the fiery rhetoric, they often get resolved before the government shuts down. Might the coming fiscal standoff be a little different? Our colleague Greg Valliere, a long-time […]
The January CPI report was troubling as it rose more than expected. The monthly rate rose by 0.5%, about 0.2% above expectations. The core monthly rate was a tenth of a percent above expectations, at 0.4%. The year-over-year CPI rate rose to 3% from 2.9%. The latest CPI data argues inflation is stuck in a […]
The graphs below, courtesy of Truflation, are very telling. The Truflation US Inflation Index uses over 30 million data points to assess price changes and, as a result, provide a robust forecast for the BLS CPI number. Moreover, their data have proven to be an incredibly accurate forecasting tool. As we share in the graph […]
If one weren’t paying attention to the cryptocurrency market, one would think that all cryptocurrencies were doing well. For instance, meme coins are all the rage, and Bitcoin has been up about 50% since the election. Donald Trump and his pro-crypto rhetoric help explain the rally. Moreover, Trump has nominated pro-crypto people to serve important […]
Bond vigilantes had been questioning Janet Yellen’s debt management tactics in her role as Treasury Secretary. Specifically, they accused her of shifting debt issuance away from longer-term maturities and toward shorter ones. We think her strategy made sense. Yellen was issuing more debt where demand was the greatest and trying to limit the amount of […]