As the FINVIZ graph below shows, crude oil prices are on a significant support level. In technical analysis, the more a price bounces off a line, the more critical that trend line becomes. Furthermore, the blue trend line, which has supported crude oil prices since 2021, was a resistance line in 2019. The bottom line […]
What a difference a month makes. In mid to late January, the bond vigilantes were shorting bonds while warning that bond yields would increase due to a robust economy, large federal deficits, and higher inflation. The ten-year US Treasury note yield peaked at 4.89% on January 13. Since then, it has fallen .72% to 4.17%. […]
On Sunday night, President Trump announced the much-anticipated Strategic Crypto Reserve. While the US already has oil and gold reserves for strategic purposes, the purpose of the Strategic Crypto Reserve is unclear. Per the Wall Street Journal quote below, the reserve sounds more like an investment in an industry than a strategic reserve in the […]
The January Goods Trade Deficit fell to a record -$153 billion versus expectations of -$116 billion. Moreover, as we share below, courtesy of MacroBond, the monthly decline of $31 billion is more than double any other instance since 1955. Imports rose by 12% while exports increased by 2%. The steep decline in the trade deficit […]
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator claims that 60.6% of the retail investors are bearish. The percentage of bears in its survey increased sharply from 40.5% at the prior reading on February 19. The AAII retail investor survey is now the most bearish it has been since September 2022. More stunning, this […]
Consumer Confidence, as surveyed by the Conference Board and University of Michigan, shows consumers are starting to lose economic confidence. Given that consumer spending drives the economy and influences inflation, confidence and the means to spend can significantly impact markets. Based on recent job data, the means (i.e., wages) to consume appear to be in […]
During Donald Trump’s first term, some investors bought into the Trump 1.0 Put. The trade was based on the market’s belief that Trump believed the stock market’s performance was a referendum on his presidency. Accordingly, investors thought that Trump would do everything he could to backstop the stock market if it fell. Thus, some investors […]
In its annual letter to shareholders this past weekend, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced that it had increased its cash holdings to $334 billion. As the Financial Times chart on the right shows, Berkshire’s cash balances have more than doubled over the last few quarters to its highest level. Additionally, cash as a percentage of […]
The coming unprecedented government job cuts will undoubtedly impact the job market. Given the labor market’s importance to Fed policy and the economy, it’s worth fully appreciating the size of the government workforce and other employees whose jobs might be affected. The following graph, courtesy of John Burns Research & Consulting, shows that 3.8 million […]