Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are hitting record highs partly due to Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies. One such anticipated policy proposal was the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve. Presumably, this would be similar to currency strategic reserves the US holds but would hold cryptocurrencies. The plan, announced Thursday night, calls the strategic crypto holdings a […]
The latest BLS and Cleveland Fed release of their quarterly new tenant rent index was lower by 2.43% year over year and over 5% from the prior quarter. The sharp rate of decline was surprising. Moreover, the update gives us more confidence that inflation is heading toward the Fed’s 2% target. Unlike CPI shelter prices, […]
With Donald Trump now officially President, we will learn which campaign promises were rhetoric and negotiating tactics and which he plans to enact. For many economists and nations, tariffs are at the top of the list of importance. China, in particular, closely followed by Canada and Mexico, appears to be at the most risk of […]
A reader of Tuesday’s Daily Commentary made a very astute comment. The title of the Commentary was “Trump Meme Coin Creates Billions Out Of Thin Air.” It doesn’t create anything… It transfers He is 100% correct. Meme coins and other forms of cryptocurrency do not create dollars. They transfer dollars from one person or entity […]
With markets closed over the long holiday weekend and Donald Trump’s inauguration and related politics taking center stage, no one thought the financial markets would make the headlines. They did. On Friday night, Donald Trump launched the largest meme coin in history. A meme coin is a cryptocurrency based on a meme. Like a baseball […]
The latest CPI inflation news was OK. The 0.4% headline increase is higher than in prior months but aligns with expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is .1% lower than the consensus at .2%. The report relieved Wall Street as it did not show a resurgence in inflation. Stocks and bonds are trading much […]
Our Commentary from January 7, Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous, discussed the ‘tremendous’ investor outflows of the bond ETF- TLT. While outflows are often associated with bearish sentiment, that is not always true. Nonetheless, TLT is in a bearish trend, and indeed, some of the record outflows from TLT are due to the environment. It’s […]
On Monday, the S&P 500 officially made a round trip back to the same levels as election eve. The equity rally that kicked off when Donald Trump won the election has been erased. The financial media blames the recent dump on prospects for wide-reaching tariffs and other policies. The reality is that higher bond yields […]
Fed rate cuts, tariffs, deficits, California wildfires, and other narratives bolster a growing concern that inflation will surge again. While those narratives are concerning, and some may have merit, market and survey-based inflation expectations do not confirm them. The Fed and almost all economists use two types of gauges to measure inflation expectations: surveys and […]